PSV Eindhoven vs Willem II match summary and prediction — Eredivisie
Our model makes PSV Eindhoven the pick at 77% for PSV Eindhoven vs Willem II. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
PSV Eindhoven face Willem II on 31 October 2026 at Philips Stadion, Eindhoven. PSV Eindhoven are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 77%. This matchday 11 fixture in Eredivisie is listed as PSV Eindhoven - Willem II. Kick-off is 17:45 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
PSV Eindhoven: they come in on the back of a draw, following two wins and two defeats before that. That is two wins, one draw and two defeats from the last five, worth 7 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (93 scored and 60 conceded in 36 matches, 2.58 and 1.67 per game) points to strong attacking output with occasional defensive lapses. That is reflected in a form rating of 52.1 out of 100, and they sit 3rd on a goal difference of +15.
Willem II: they come in on the back of a win, following four defeats before that. That is one win, no draws and four defeats from the last five, worth 3 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (33 scored and 19 conceded in 18 matches, 1.83 and 1.06 per game) points to strong attacking output with occasional defensive lapses. That is reflected in a form rating of 19.5 out of 100, and they sit 18th on a goal difference of -22.
Comparison data
| Statistic | PSV Eindhoven | Willem II |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 3rd | 18th |
| Goal difference | +15 | -22 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | DWLLW | WLLLL |
| Points from last 5 | 7 | 3 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 5 / 4 | 8 / 16 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 2 | 0 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 36 | 18 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 2.58 / 1.67 | 1.83 / 1.06 |
| Points per game (2025) | 1.75 | 2.0 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 52.1 | 19.5 |
| Players unavailable | 12 | 4 |
| Model win probability | 77% | 8% |
Key match insights
- Pre-match form ratings: PSV Eindhoven 52.1 versus Willem II 19.5, a gap of 32.6, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Table gap: 15 places separate them, the kind of margin that usually shows in the first twenty minutes.
- Availability: PSV Eindhoven carry the heavier absentee list, twelve players to four.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 3.60, over 2.5 goals at 73% and both teams to score at 62%.
- First goal: Leans PSV Eindhoven's way at 78%.
The call
The model leans firmly towards PSV Eindhoven at 77%, a gap of 62 percentage points to the next outcome. PSV Eindhoven's form line and home advantage back it and the goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts PSV Eindhoven's way, especially at Philips Stadion.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: PSV Eindhoven or Willem II?
PSV Eindhoven, with an implied win probability of roughly 77%. The full split is 77% PSV Eindhoven, 15% the draw and 8% Willem II.
When and where is PSV Eindhoven vs Willem II being played?
31 October 2026 at Philips Stadion, Eindhoven, kick-off 17:45 UTC.
Have PSV Eindhoven and Willem II met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of PSV Eindhoven and Willem II?
PSV Eindhoven have taken 7 points from their last five (DWLLW), Willem II 3 from theirs (WLLLL). Most recently PSV Eindhoven took a 1-1 draw at home to Feyenoord and Willem II a 4-3 win away at Helmond Sport.
How many goals are expected in PSV Eindhoven vs Willem II?
The model's combined scoring line is 3.60 — 2.20 for PSV Eindhoven and 1.40 for Willem II. It rates over 2.5 goals at 73%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 62%, so its call is yes.
Who is unavailable?
Our injury feed lists twelve players unavailable for PSV Eindhoven and four for Willem II at the time of writing. Confirmed line-ups land about an hour before kick-off.