Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar: match summary, form and prediction
Our model makes Ajax the pick at 56% for Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Ajax host AZ Alkmaar on 31 October 2026 at Johan Cruijff Arena, Amsterdam. Ajax are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 56%. This matchday 11 fixture in Eredivisie is listed as Ajax - AZ Alkmaar. Kick-off is 20:00 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Ajax: they come in on a three-match winning sequence, following one draw and one defeat before that. That is three wins, one draw and one defeat from the last five, worth 10 points. It leaves them unbeaten in three. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (31 scored and 12 conceded in ten matches, 3.1 and 1.2 per game) points to strong attacking output with occasional defensive lapses. That is reflected in a form rating of 65.7 out of 100, and they sit 2nd on a goal difference of +16.
AZ Alkmaar: they come in on the back of a defeat, following two wins, one draw and one defeat before that. That is two wins, one draw and two defeats from the last five, worth 7 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (12 scored and 7 conceded in six matches, 2.0 and 1.17 per game) points to strong attacking output with occasional defensive lapses. That is reflected in a form rating of 43.7 out of 100, and they sit 5th on a goal difference of +8.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Ajax | AZ Alkmaar |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 2nd | 5th |
| Goal difference | +16 | +8 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WWWLD | LWDWL |
| Points from last 5 | 10 | 7 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 11 / 6 | 8 / 7 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 1 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 10 | 6 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 3.1 / 1.2 | 2.0 / 1.17 |
| Points per game (2026) | 2.5 | 1.83 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 65.7 | 43.7 |
| Players unavailable | 12 | 10 |
| Model win probability | 56% | 25% |
| Head-to-head wins (last 2) | 0 | 1 |
Key match insights
- Head-to-head balance (last 2): Ajax none wins, AZ Alkmaar one win, one draw — a historically tight match-up.
- Most recent meeting: AZ Alkmaar 1-1 Ajax on 08 February 2026.
- Head-to-head goals: 4.0 per game across those meetings, with both teams scoring in one of the two — a fixture that has tended to open up.
- Pre-match form ratings: Ajax 65.7 versus AZ Alkmaar 43.7, a gap of 22.0, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 5.80, over 2.5 goals at 75% and both teams to score at 67%.
- First goal: Leans Ajax's way at 60%.
The call
The model leans firmly towards Ajax at 56%, a gap of 32 percentage points to the next outcome. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Ajax's way, especially at Johan Cruijff Arena.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Ajax or AZ Alkmaar?
Ajax, with an implied win probability of roughly 56%. The full split is 56% Ajax, 19% the draw and 25% AZ Alkmaar.
When and where is Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar being played?
31 October 2026 at Johan Cruijff Arena, Amsterdam, kick-off 20:00 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Ajax and AZ Alkmaar?
AZ Alkmaar 1-1 Ajax on 08 February 2026.
What is the recent form of Ajax and AZ Alkmaar?
Ajax have taken 10 points from their last five (WWWLD), AZ Alkmaar 7 from theirs (LWDWL). Most recently Ajax took a 2-1 win away at Sparta Rotterdam and AZ Alkmaar a 0-2 defeat at home to Twente.
How many goals are expected in Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar?
The model's combined scoring line is 5.80 — 3.80 for Ajax and 2.00 for AZ Alkmaar. It rates over 2.5 goals at 75%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 67%, so its call is yes.
Who is unavailable?
Our injury feed lists twelve players unavailable for Ajax and ten for AZ Alkmaar at the time of writing. Confirmed line-ups land about an hour before kick-off.