Excelsior vs Twente — form, head-to-head and match prediction
Our model makes Twente the pick at 51% for Excelsior vs Twente. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Excelsior face Twente on 1 November 2026 at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion, Rotterdam. Twente are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 51%. This matchday 11 fixture in Eredivisie is listed as Excelsior - Twente. Kick-off is 13:30 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Excelsior: they come in on the back of a win, following one draw and three defeats before that. That is one win, one draw and three defeats from the last five, worth 4 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (13 scored and 5 conceded in six matches, 2.17 and 0.83 per game) points to a side doing the job at both ends. That is reflected in a form rating of 27.6 out of 100, and they sit 13th on a goal difference of -3.
Twente: they come in on a two-match winning sequence, following one win, one draw and one defeat before that. That is three wins, one draw and one defeat from the last five, worth 10 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (23 scored and 11 conceded in ten matches, 2.3 and 1.1 per game) points to strong attacking output with occasional defensive lapses. That is reflected in a form rating of 60.6 out of 100, and they sit 4th on a goal difference of +9.
Side by side
| Statistic | Excelsior | Twente |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 13th | 4th |
| Goal difference | -3 | +9 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WLLLD | WWLWD |
| Points from last 5 | 4 | 10 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 6 / 12 | 9 / 4 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 2 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 6 | 10 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 2.17 / 0.83 | 2.3 / 1.1 |
| Points per game (2026) | 1.67 | 1.8 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 27.6 | 60.6 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 12 |
| Model win probability | 26% | 51% |
Key match insights
- Pre-match form ratings: Excelsior 27.6 versus Twente 60.6, a gap of 33.0, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Table gap: Nine places separate them, the kind of margin that usually shows in the first twenty minutes.
- Availability: Twente carry the heavier absentee list, twelve players to no.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 3.80, over 2.5 goals at 60% and both teams to score at 61%.
- First goal: Leans Twente's way at 55%.
The call
The model tilts to Twente at 51%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. Twente's stronger recent metrics back it and the goals line points to over 2.5 goals.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Excelsior or Twente?
Twente, with an implied win probability of roughly 51%. The full split is 26% Excelsior, 24% the draw and 51% Twente.
When and where is Excelsior vs Twente being played?
1 November 2026 at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion, Rotterdam, kick-off 13:30 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Excelsior and Twente?
Twente 0-0 Excelsior on 24 January 2026.
What is the recent form of Excelsior and Twente?
Excelsior have taken 4 points from their last five (WLLLD), Twente 10 from theirs (WWLWD). Most recently Excelsior took a 3-0 win away at MVV and Twente a 2-0 win away at AZ Alkmaar.
How many goals are expected in Excelsior vs Twente?
The model's combined scoring line is 3.80 — 1.80 for Excelsior and 2.00 for Twente. It rates over 2.5 goals at 60%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 61%, so its call is yes.
Who is unavailable?
Our injury feed lists no players unavailable for Excelsior and twelve for Twente at the time of writing. Confirmed line-ups land about an hour before kick-off.