Groningen vs Sparta Rotterdam match summary and prediction — Eredivisie
Our model makes Groningen the pick at 56% for Groningen vs Sparta Rotterdam. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Sparta Rotterdam travel to Groningen on 1 November 2026 at Hitachi Capital Mobility Stadion, Groningen. Groningen are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 56%. This matchday 11 fixture in Eredivisie is listed as Groningen - Sparta Rotterdam. Kick-off is 15:45 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Groningen: they come in on the back of a defeat, following two wins, one draw and one defeat before that. That is two wins, one draw and two defeats from the last five, worth 7 points. It leaves them three games without a win. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (20 scored and 21 conceded in 16 matches, 1.25 and 1.31 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 52.4 out of 100, and they sit 8th on a goal difference of +3.
Sparta Rotterdam: they come in on the back of a draw, following one win, one draw and two defeats before that. That is one win, two draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 5 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (21 scored and 26 conceded in 16 matches, 1.31 and 1.62 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 36.6 out of 100, and they sit 14th on a goal difference of -7.
Side by side
| Statistic | Groningen | Sparta Rotterdam |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 8th | 14th |
| Goal difference | +3 | -7 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LDLWW | DLWDL |
| Points from last 5 | 7 | 5 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 12 / 10 | 9 / 13 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 0 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 16 | 16 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 1.25 / 1.31 | 1.31 / 1.62 |
| Points per game (2025) | 1.19 | 1.25 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 52.4 | 36.6 |
| Players unavailable | 6 | 2 |
| Model win probability | 56% | 23% |
Key match insights
- Pre-match form ratings: Groningen 52.4 versus Sparta Rotterdam 36.6, a gap of 15.8, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Availability: Groningen carry the heavier absentee list, six players to two.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.60, over 2.5 goals at 68% and both teams to score at 63%.
- First goal: Leans Groningen's way at 59%.
The call
The model leans firmly towards Groningen at 56%, a gap of 32 percentage points to the next outcome. Sparta Rotterdam's stronger recent metrics back it and the goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Groningen's way, especially at Hitachi Capital Mobility Stadion.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Groningen or Sparta Rotterdam?
Groningen, with an implied win probability of roughly 56%. The full split is 56% Groningen, 21% the draw and 23% Sparta Rotterdam.
When and where is Groningen vs Sparta Rotterdam being played?
1 November 2026 at Hitachi Capital Mobility Stadion, Groningen, kick-off 15:45 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Groningen and Sparta Rotterdam?
Sparta Rotterdam 2-0 Groningen on 31 January 2026.
What is the recent form of Groningen and Sparta Rotterdam?
Groningen have taken 7 points from their last five (LDLWW), Sparta Rotterdam 5 from theirs (DLWDL). Most recently Groningen took a 0-2 defeat at home to Emmen and Sparta Rotterdam a 2-2 draw at home to Fortuna Sittard.
How many goals are expected in Groningen vs Sparta Rotterdam?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.60 — 1.40 for Groningen and 1.20 for Sparta Rotterdam. It rates over 2.5 goals at 68%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 63%, so its call is yes.
Who is unavailable?
Our injury feed lists six players unavailable for Groningen and two for Sparta Rotterdam at the time of writing. Confirmed line-ups land about an hour before kick-off.