Willem II vs PEC Zwolle: match summary, form and prediction
Our model makes Willem II the pick at 44% for Willem II vs PEC Zwolle. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Willem II host PEC Zwolle on 6 November 2026 at Koning Willem II Stadion, Tilburg. Willem II are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 44%. This matchday 12 fixture in Eredivisie is listed as Willem II - PEC Zwolle. Kick-off is 19:00 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Willem II: they come in on the back of a defeat, following one win and three defeats before that. That is one win, no draws and four defeats from the last five, worth 3 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (8 scored and 29 conceded in seven matches, 1.14 and 4.14 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 17.8 out of 100, and they sit 18th on a goal difference of -29.
PEC Zwolle: they come in on the back of a win, following one win, one draw and two defeats before that. That is two wins, one draw and two defeats from the last five, worth 7 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (9 scored and 15 conceded in seven matches, 1.29 and 2.14 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 45.6 out of 100, and they sit 14th on a goal difference of -11.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Willem II | PEC Zwolle |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 18th | 14th |
| Goal difference | -29 | -11 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LWLLL | WLDWL |
| Points from last 5 | 3 | 7 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 8 / 22 | 7 / 5 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 0 | 1 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 7 | 7 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 1.14 / 4.14 | 1.29 / 2.14 |
| Points per game (2026) | 0.57 | 1.14 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 17.8 | 45.6 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 44% | 31% |
Key match insights
- Pre-match form ratings: Willem II 17.8 versus PEC Zwolle 45.6, a gap of 27.8, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.80, over 2.5 goals at 65% and both teams to score at 63%.
- First goal: Leans Willem II's way at 54%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model edges towards Willem II at 44%, and 'edges' is doing real work in that sentence. PEC Zwolle's stronger recent metrics back it and the goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Willem II's way, especially at Koning Willem II Stadion.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Willem II or PEC Zwolle?
Willem II, with an implied win probability of roughly 44%. The full split is 44% Willem II, 25% the draw and 31% PEC Zwolle.
When and where is Willem II vs PEC Zwolle being played?
6 November 2026 at Koning Willem II Stadion, Tilburg, kick-off 19:00 UTC.
Have Willem II and PEC Zwolle met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Willem II and PEC Zwolle?
Willem II have taken 3 points from their last five (LWLLL), PEC Zwolle 7 from theirs (WLDWL). Most recently Willem II took a 0-7 defeat away at PSV Eindhoven and PEC Zwolle a 1-0 win at home to ADO Den Haag.
How many goals are expected in Willem II vs PEC Zwolle?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.80 — 1.40 for Willem II and 1.40 for PEC Zwolle. It rates over 2.5 goals at 65%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 63%, so its call is yes.