AZ Alkmaar vs Groningen match summary and prediction — Eredivisie
Our model makes AZ Alkmaar the pick at 65% for AZ Alkmaar vs Groningen. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Groningen travel to AZ Alkmaar on 8 November 2026 at AFAS Stadion, Alkmaar. AZ Alkmaar are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 65%. This matchday 12 fixture in Eredivisie is listed as AZ Alkmaar - Groningen. Kick-off is 15:45 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
AZ Alkmaar: they come in on back-to-back defeats, following two wins and one draw before that. That is two wins, one draw and two defeats from the last five, worth 7 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (12 scored and 8 conceded in seven matches, 1.71 and 1.14 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 40.1 out of 100, and they sit 5th on a goal difference of +7.
Groningen: they come in on back-to-back defeats, following one win, one draw and one defeat before that. That is one win, one draw and three defeats from the last five, worth 4 points. It leaves them winless in four. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (11 scored and 16 conceded in seven matches, 1.57 and 2.29 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 48.8 out of 100, and they sit 8th on a goal difference of +2.
Side by side
| Statistic | AZ Alkmaar | Groningen |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 5th | 8th |
| Goal difference | +7 | +2 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LLWDW | LLDLW |
| Points from last 5 | 7 | 4 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 8 / 6 | 11 / 13 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 0 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 7 | 7 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 1.71 / 1.14 | 1.57 / 2.29 |
| Points per game (2026) | 1.57 | 0.86 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 40.1 | 48.8 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 65% | 16% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: AZ Alkmaar 40.1 versus Groningen 48.8, a gap of 8.7, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.80, over 2.5 goals at 67% and both teams to score at 61%.
- First goal: Leans AZ Alkmaar's way at 69%.
The call
The model leans firmly towards AZ Alkmaar at 65%, a gap of 45 percentage points to the next outcome. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts AZ Alkmaar's way, especially at AFAS Stadion.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: AZ Alkmaar or Groningen?
AZ Alkmaar, with an implied win probability of roughly 65%. The full split is 65% AZ Alkmaar, 19% the draw and 16% Groningen.
When and where is AZ Alkmaar vs Groningen being played?
8 November 2026 at AFAS Stadion, Alkmaar, kick-off 15:45 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between AZ Alkmaar and Groningen?
Groningen 3-0 AZ Alkmaar on 22 March 2026.
What is the recent form of AZ Alkmaar and Groningen?
AZ Alkmaar have taken 7 points from their last five (LLWDW), Groningen 4 from theirs (LLDLW). Most recently AZ Alkmaar took a 0-1 defeat away at Ajax and Groningen a 2-3 defeat at home to Sparta Rotterdam.
How many goals are expected in AZ Alkmaar vs Groningen?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.80 — 1.40 for AZ Alkmaar and 1.40 for Groningen. It rates over 2.5 goals at 67%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 61%, so its call is yes.