PAU vs Grenoble — form, head-to-head and match prediction
Our model makes a draw the pick at 46% for PAU vs Grenoble. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
PAU face Grenoble on 23 October 2026 at Nouste Camp, Pau. No side is favoured: the draw carries our highest model probability at 46%, which is unusual and says more about the matchup than either team. This matchday 10 fixture in Ligue 2 is listed as PAU - Grenoble. Kick-off is 18:00 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
PAU: they come in on a four-match winning sequence, following one defeat before that. That is four wins, no draws and one defeat from the last five, worth 12 points. It leaves them unbeaten in four. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (24 scored and 34 conceded in 16 matches, 1.5 and 2.12 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 58.8 out of 100, and they sit 6th on a goal difference of +2.
Grenoble: they come in on back-to-back defeats, following one win and two draws before that. That is one win, two draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 5 points. It leaves them winless in four. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (14 scored and 15 conceded in 16 matches, 0.88 and 0.94 per game) underlines how hard they have found it to score. That is reflected in a form rating of 36.6 out of 100, and they sit 15th on a goal difference of -7.
Side by side
| Statistic | PAU | Grenoble |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 6th | 15th |
| Goal difference | +2 | -7 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WWWWL | LLDDW |
| Points from last 5 | 12 | 5 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 10 / 6 | 2 / 5 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 2 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 16 | 16 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 1.5 / 2.12 | 0.88 / 0.94 |
| Points per game (2025) | 1.19 | 1.12 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 58.8 | 36.6 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 39% | 15% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: PAU 58.8 versus Grenoble 36.6, a gap of 22.2, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Table gap: Nine places separate them, the kind of margin that usually shows in the first twenty minutes.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 1.80, over 2.5 goals at 26% and both teams to score at 42%.
- First goal: Leans PAU's way at 62%.
The call
The model edges towards a draw at 46%, and 'edges' is doing real work in that sentence. PAU's form line and home advantage back it and the goals line points to under 2.5 goals.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: PAU or Grenoble?
Neither side. Our model splits it 39% PAU, 46% the draw and 15% Grenoble, with the draw carrying the highest probability.
When and where is PAU vs Grenoble being played?
23 October 2026 at Nouste Camp, Pau, kick-off 18:00 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between PAU and Grenoble?
PAU 2-2 Grenoble on 23 January 2026.
What is the recent form of PAU and Grenoble?
PAU have taken 12 points from their last five (WWWWL), Grenoble 5 from theirs (LLDDW). Most recently PAU took a 2-1 win away at Guingamp and Grenoble a 0-2 defeat at home to Boulogne.
How many goals are expected in PAU vs Grenoble?
The model's combined scoring line is 1.80 — 1.00 for PAU and 0.80 for Grenoble. It rates over 2.5 goals at 26%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 42%, so its call is no.