Saint Etienne vs Nantes — form, head-to-head and match prediction
There is barely anything between Saint Etienne and Nantes on our numbers. Form trajectory, a side-by-side comparison, the head-to-head record and where the model does — and does not — commit.
Match summary
Saint Etienne face Nantes on 24 October 2026 at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard, Saint Etienne. No side is favoured: the draw carries our highest model probability at 40%, which is unusual and says more about the matchup than either team. This matchday 10 fixture in Ligue 2 is listed as Saint Etienne - Nantes. Kick-off is 18:00 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Saint Etienne: they come in on a three-match winning sequence, following one draw and one defeat before that. That is three wins, one draw and one defeat from the last five, worth 10 points. It leaves them unbeaten in four. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (25 scored and 19 conceded in 20 matches, 1.25 and 0.95 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 61.8 out of 100, and they sit 1st on a goal difference of +14.
Nantes: they come in on the back of a defeat, following two wins, one draw and one defeat before that. That is two wins, one draw and two defeats from the last five, worth 7 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (29 scored and 48 conceded in 29 matches, 1.0 and 1.66 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 47.1 out of 100, and they sit 14th on a goal difference of -5.
Side by side
| Statistic | Saint Etienne | Nantes |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 1st | 14th |
| Goal difference | +14 | -5 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WWWDL | LDWLW |
| Points from last 5 | 10 | 7 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 11 / 5 | 5 / 5 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 2 | 2 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 20 | 29 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 1.25 / 0.95 | 1.0 / 1.66 |
| Points per game (2025) | 1.45 | 0.72 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 61.8 | 47.1 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 38% | 22% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: Saint Etienne 61.8 versus Nantes 47.1, a gap of 14.8, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Table gap: 13 places separate them, the kind of margin that usually shows in the first twenty minutes.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.20, over 2.5 goals at 41% and both teams to score at 54%.
- First goal: Leans Saint Etienne's way at 47%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model does not commit. A draw is the nominal pick at 40%, but the three results sit close to even. The goals line points to under 2.5 goals.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Saint Etienne or Nantes?
Neither side. Our model splits it 38% Saint Etienne, 40% the draw and 22% Nantes, with the draw carrying the highest probability.
When and where is Saint Etienne vs Nantes being played?
24 October 2026 at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard, Saint Etienne, kick-off 18:00 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Saint Etienne and Nantes?
Saint Etienne 1-1 Nantes on 19 January 2025.
What is the recent form of Saint Etienne and Nantes?
Saint Etienne have taken 10 points from their last five (WWWDL), Nantes 7 from theirs (LDWLW). Most recently Saint Etienne took a 1-0 win away at RED Star FC 93 and Nantes a 2-3 defeat at home to Dunkerque.
How many goals are expected in Saint Etienne vs Nantes?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.20 — 1.60 for Saint Etienne and 0.60 for Nantes. It rates over 2.5 goals at 41%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 54%, so its call is yes.