Metz vs PAU match summary and prediction — Ligue 2
Our model makes Metz the pick at 48% for Metz vs PAU. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Metz host PAU on 30 October 2026 at Stade Saint-Symphorien, Metz. Metz are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 48%. This matchday 11 fixture in Ligue 2 is listed as Metz - PAU. Kick-off is 19:00 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Metz: they come in on the back of a draw, following one win, one draw and two defeats before that. That is one win, two draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 5 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (29 scored and 68 conceded in 29 matches, 1.0 and 2.34 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 42.2 out of 100, and they sit 8th on a goal difference of +2.
PAU: they come in on a five-match winning sequence. That is five wins, no draws and no defeats from the last five, worth 15 points. It leaves them unbeaten in five. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (24 scored and 34 conceded in 16 matches, 1.5 and 2.12 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 65.8 out of 100, and they sit 5th on a goal difference of +3.
Side by side
| Statistic | Metz | PAU |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 8th | 5th |
| Goal difference | +2 | +3 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | DWLDL | WWWWW |
| Points from last 5 | 5 | 15 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 8 / 10 | 12 / 6 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 0 | 1 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 29 | 16 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 1.0 / 2.34 | 1.5 / 2.12 |
| Points per game (2025) | 0.55 | 1.19 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 42.2 | 65.8 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 48% | 27% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: Metz 42.2 versus PAU 65.8, a gap of 23.6, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 3.20, over 2.5 goals at 56% and both teams to score at 59%.
- First goal: Leans Metz's way at 54%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model tilts to Metz at 48%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Metz's way, especially at Stade Saint-Symphorien.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Metz or PAU?
Metz, with an implied win probability of roughly 48%. The full split is 48% Metz, 25% the draw and 27% PAU.
When and where is Metz vs PAU being played?
30 October 2026 at Stade Saint-Symphorien, Metz, kick-off 19:00 UTC.
Have Metz and PAU met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Metz and PAU?
Metz have taken 5 points from their last five (DWLDL), PAU 15 from theirs (WWWWW). Most recently Metz took a 1-1 draw away at Dunkerque and PAU a 2-1 win at home to Grenoble.
How many goals are expected in Metz vs PAU?
The model's combined scoring line is 3.20 — 2.00 for Metz and 1.20 for PAU. It rates over 2.5 goals at 56%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 59%, so its call is yes.