Rodez vs Dunkerque match summary and prediction — Ligue 2
Our model makes Rodez the pick at 57% for Rodez vs Dunkerque. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Rodez face Dunkerque on 30 October 2026 at Stade Paul-Lignon, Rodez. Rodez are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 57%. This matchday 11 fixture in Ligue 2 is listed as Rodez - Dunkerque. Kick-off is 19:00 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Rodez: they come in on the back of a win, following one win and three defeats before that. That is two wins, no draws and three defeats from the last five, worth 6 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (29 scored and 17 conceded in 18 matches, 1.61 and 0.94 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 33.5 out of 100, and they sit 13th on a goal difference of -6.
Dunkerque: they come in on the back of a draw, following one win and three defeats before that. That is one win, one draw and three defeats from the last five, worth 4 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (22 scored and 27 conceded in 17 matches, 1.29 and 1.59 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 47.8 out of 100, and they sit 10th on a goal difference of -2.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Rodez | Dunkerque |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 13th | 10th |
| Goal difference | -6 | -2 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WLLWL | DWLLL |
| Points from last 5 | 6 | 4 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 7 / 10 | 4 / 10 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 0 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 18 | 17 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 1.61 / 0.94 | 1.29 / 1.59 |
| Points per game (2025) | 2.22 | 0.76 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 33.5 | 47.8 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 57% | 20% |
Key match insights
- Pre-match form ratings: Rodez 33.5 versus Dunkerque 47.8, a gap of 14.3, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 3.40, over 2.5 goals at 55% and both teams to score at 54%.
- First goal: Leans Rodez's way at 64%.
The call
The model leans firmly towards Rodez at 57%, a gap of 34 percentage points to the next outcome. Rodez's form line and home advantage back it and the goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Rodez's way, especially at Stade Paul-Lignon.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Rodez or Dunkerque?
Rodez, with an implied win probability of roughly 57%. The full split is 57% Rodez, 23% the draw and 20% Dunkerque.
When and where is Rodez vs Dunkerque being played?
30 October 2026 at Stade Paul-Lignon, Rodez, kick-off 19:00 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Rodez and Dunkerque?
Dunkerque 1-1 Rodez on 03 April 2026.
What is the recent form of Rodez and Dunkerque?
Rodez have taken 6 points from their last five (WLLWL), Dunkerque 4 from theirs (DWLLL). Most recently Rodez took a 2-1 win away at Dijon and Dunkerque a 1-1 draw at home to Metz.
How many goals are expected in Rodez vs Dunkerque?
The model's combined scoring line is 3.40 — 1.20 for Rodez and 2.20 for Dunkerque. It rates over 2.5 goals at 55%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 54%, so its call is yes.