PAU vs Nantes match summary and prediction — Ligue 2
Our model makes PAU the pick at 38% for PAU vs Nantes. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
PAU face Nantes on 6 November 2026 at Nouste Camp, Pau. PAU are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 38%. This matchday 12 fixture in Ligue 2 is listed as PAU - Nantes. Kick-off is 19:00 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
PAU: they come in on a five-match winning sequence. That is five wins, no draws and no defeats from the last five, worth 15 points. It leaves them unbeaten in five. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (24 scored and 34 conceded in 16 matches, 1.5 and 2.12 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 76.2 out of 100, and they sit 3rd on a goal difference of +5.
Nantes: they come in on the back of a draw, following one win, one draw and two defeats before that. That is one win, two draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 5 points. It leaves them winless in four. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (29 scored and 48 conceded in 29 matches, 1.0 and 1.66 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 40.2 out of 100, and they sit 15th on a goal difference of -6.
Side by side
| Statistic | PAU | Nantes |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 3rd | 15th |
| Goal difference | +5 | -6 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WWWWW | DLLDW |
| Points from last 5 | 15 | 5 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 13 / 7 | 5 / 6 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 0 | 1 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 16 | 29 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 1.5 / 2.12 | 1.0 / 1.66 |
| Points per game (2025) | 1.19 | 0.72 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 76.2 | 40.2 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 38% | 31% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: PAU 76.2 versus Nantes 40.2, a gap of 36.1, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Table gap: Twelve places separate them, the kind of margin that usually shows in the first twenty minutes.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.00, over 2.5 goals at 45% and both teams to score at 55%.
- First goal: Leans PAU's way at 48%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model edges towards PAU at 38%, and 'edges' is doing real work in that sentence. PAU's form line and home advantage back it and the goals line points to under 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts PAU's way, especially at Nouste Camp.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: PAU or Nantes?
PAU, with an implied win probability of roughly 38%. The full split is 38% PAU, 31% the draw and 31% Nantes.
When and where is PAU vs Nantes being played?
6 November 2026 at Nouste Camp, Pau, kick-off 19:00 UTC.
Have PAU and Nantes met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of PAU and Nantes?
PAU have taken 15 points from their last five (WWWWW), Nantes 5 from theirs (DLLDW). Most recently PAU took a 3-1 win away at Metz and Nantes a 1-1 draw at home to Clermont Foot.
How many goals are expected in PAU vs Nantes?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.00 — 1.20 for PAU and 0.80 for Nantes. It rates over 2.5 goals at 45%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 55%, so its call is yes.