Le Havre vs Angers: the numbers, the form and our prediction
Our model makes a draw the pick at 48% for Le Havre vs Angers. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Le Havre face Angers on 12 September 2026. No side is favoured: the draw carries our highest model probability at 48%, which is unusual and says more about the matchup than either team. This matchday 4 fixture in Ligue 1 is listed as Le Havre - Angers. Kick-off is 18:45 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Le Havre: they come in on the back of a defeat, following one win, one draw and two defeats before that. That is one win, one draw and three defeats from the last five, worth 4 points. It leaves them three games without a win. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (27 scored and 40 conceded in 30 matches, 0.9 and 1.33 per game) underlines how hard they have found it to score. That is reflected in a form rating of 27.8 out of 100, and they sit 16th on a goal difference of -2.
Angers: they come in on the back of a defeat, following three wins and one defeat before that. That is three wins, no draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 9 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (26 scored and 37 conceded in 31 matches, 0.84 and 1.19 per game) underlines how hard they have found it to score. That is reflected in a form rating of 34.8 out of 100, and they sit 12th on a goal difference of -1.
Side by side
| Statistic | Le Havre | Angers |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 16th | 12th |
| Goal difference | -2 | -1 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LDLWL | LWLWW |
| Points from last 5 | 4 | 9 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 5 / 7 | 9 / 8 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 0 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 30 | 31 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 0.9 / 1.33 | 0.84 / 1.19 |
| Points per game (2025) | 0.93 | 1.23 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 27.8 | 34.8 |
| Players unavailable | 16 | 4 |
| Model win probability | 19% | 34% |
| Head-to-head wins (last 3) | 0 | 1 |
What stands out
- Head-to-head balance (last 3): Le Havre none wins, Angers one win, two draws — a historically tight match-up.
- Most recent meeting: Angers 1-1 Le Havre on 18 April 2026.
- Head-to-head goals: 1.67 per game across those meetings, with both teams scoring in two of the three — a fixture that has historically stayed tight.
- Pre-match form ratings: Le Havre 27.8 versus Angers 34.8, a gap of 6.9, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Availability: Le Havre carry the heavier absentee list, 16 players to four.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.00, over 2.5 goals at 7% and both teams to score at 28%.
- First goal: Leans Le Havre's way at 50%.
The call
The model tilts to a draw at 48%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. Angers' stronger recent metrics back it, the goals line points to under 2.5 goals and draw probability stays material given the head-to-head draw rate.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Le Havre or Angers?
Neither side. Our model splits it 19% Le Havre, 48% the draw and 34% Angers, with the draw carrying the highest probability.
When and where is Le Havre vs Angers being played?
12 September 2026, kick-off 18:45 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Le Havre and Angers?
Angers 1-1 Le Havre on 18 April 2026.
What is the recent form of Le Havre and Angers?
Le Havre have taken 4 points from their last five (LDLWL), Angers 9 from theirs (LWLWW). Most recently Le Havre took a 1-2 defeat at home to Stade Brestois 29 and Angers a 1-2 defeat at home to Rennes.
How many goals are expected in Le Havre vs Angers?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.00 — 0.80 for Le Havre and 1.20 for Angers. It rates over 2.5 goals at 7%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 28%, so its call is no.
Who is unavailable?
Our injury feed lists 16 players unavailable for Le Havre and four for Angers at the time of writing. Confirmed line-ups land about an hour before kick-off.