Lorient vs Toulouse match summary and prediction — Ligue 1
Our model makes Lorient the pick at 62% for Lorient vs Toulouse. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Toulouse travel to Lorient on 12 September 2026 at Stade du Moustoir, Lorient. Lorient are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 62%. This matchday 4 fixture in Ligue 1 is listed as Lorient - Toulouse. Kick-off is 18:45 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Lorient: they come in on the back of a win, following one draw and three defeats before that. That is one win, one draw and three defeats from the last five, worth 4 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (39 scored and 44 conceded in 31 matches, 1.26 and 1.42 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 38.3 out of 100, and they sit 8th on a goal difference of 0.
Toulouse: they come in on the back of a defeat, following one win, one draw and two defeats before that. That is one win, one draw and three defeats from the last five, worth 4 points. It leaves them winless in four. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (44 scored and 45 conceded in 34 matches, 1.29 and 1.32 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 27.6 out of 100, and they sit 17th on a goal difference of -3.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Lorient | Toulouse |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 8th | 17th |
| Goal difference | 0 | -3 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WLDLL | LDLLW |
| Points from last 5 | 4 | 4 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 4 / 8 | 5 / 8 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 2 | 0 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 31 | 34 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 1.26 / 1.42 | 1.29 / 1.32 |
| Points per game (2025) | 1.29 | 1.35 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 38.3 | 27.6 |
| Players unavailable | 2 | 6 |
| Model win probability | 62% | 7% |
| Head-to-head wins (last 6) | 0 | 3 |
What stands out
- Head-to-head balance (last 6): Lorient none wins, Toulouse three wins, three draws — an edge to Toulouse.
- Most recent meeting: Toulouse 1-0 Lorient on 21 March 2026.
- Head-to-head goals: 2.17 per game across those meetings, with both teams scoring in four of the six — broadly an average game for goals.
- Pre-match form ratings: Lorient 38.3 versus Toulouse 27.6, a gap of 10.8, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Table gap: Nine places separate them, the kind of margin that usually shows in the first twenty minutes.
- Availability: Toulouse carry the heavier absentee list, six players to two.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 3.00, over 2.5 goals at 55% and both teams to score at 34%.
- First goal: Leans Lorient's way at 74%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model leans firmly towards Lorient at 62%, a gap of 31 percentage points to the next outcome. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals and draw probability stays material given the head-to-head draw rate. Baseline expectation tilts Lorient's way, especially at Stade du Moustoir.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Lorient or Toulouse?
Lorient, with an implied win probability of roughly 62%. The full split is 62% Lorient, 31% the draw and 7% Toulouse.
When and where is Lorient vs Toulouse being played?
12 September 2026 at Stade du Moustoir, Lorient, kick-off 18:45 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Lorient and Toulouse?
Toulouse 1-0 Lorient on 21 March 2026.
What is the recent form of Lorient and Toulouse?
Lorient have taken 4 points from their last five (WLDLL), Toulouse 4 from theirs (LDLLW). Most recently Lorient took a 1-0 win away at Lens and Toulouse a 0-1 defeat at home to Lille.
How many goals are expected in Lorient vs Toulouse?
The model's combined scoring line is 3.00 — 1.80 for Lorient and 1.20 for Toulouse. It rates over 2.5 goals at 55%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 34%, so its call is no.
Who is unavailable?
Our injury feed lists two players unavailable for Lorient and six for Toulouse at the time of writing. Confirmed line-ups land about an hour before kick-off.