Nice vs Lille: match summary, form and prediction
Our model makes a draw the pick at 50% for Nice vs Lille. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Nice face Lille on 20 September 2026 at Allianz Riviera, Nice. No side is favoured: the draw carries our highest model probability at 50%, which is unusual and says more about the matchup than either team. This matchday 5 fixture in Ligue 1 is listed as Nice - Lille. Kick-off is 15:15 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Nice: they come in on the back of a defeat, following three draws and one defeat before that. That is no wins, three draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 3 points. It leaves them winless in five. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (51 scored and 65 conceded in 43 matches, 1.19 and 1.51 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 30.7 out of 100, and they sit 18th on a goal difference of -4.
Lille: they come in on the back of a win, following two wins, one draw and one defeat before that. That is three wins, one draw and one defeat from the last five, worth 10 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (56 scored and 47 conceded in 40 matches, 1.4 and 1.18 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 59.6 out of 100, and they sit 1st on a goal difference of +5.
Side by side
| Statistic | Nice | Lille |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 18th | 1st |
| Goal difference | -4 | +5 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LDLDD | WLWDW |
| Points from last 5 | 3 | 10 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 1 / 5 | 9 / 5 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 2 | 3 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 43 | 40 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 1.19 / 1.51 | 1.4 / 1.18 |
| Points per game (2025) | 1.12 | 1.52 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 30.7 | 59.6 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 29% | 21% |
| Head-to-head wins (last 8) | 3 | 1 |
Key match insights
- Head-to-head balance (last 8): Nice three wins, Lille one win, four draws — an edge to Nice.
- Most recent meeting: Lille 0-0 Nice on 18 April 2026.
- Head-to-head goals: 2.38 per game across those meetings, with both teams scoring in five of the eight — broadly an average game for goals.
- Pre-match form ratings: Nice 30.7 versus Lille 59.6, a gap of 28.9, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Table gap: 17 places separate them, the kind of margin that usually shows in the first twenty minutes.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.80, over 2.5 goals at 64% and both teams to score at 52%.
- First goal: Leans Nice's way at 51%.
The call
The model tilts to a draw at 50%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. Lille's stronger recent metrics back it, the goals line points to over 2.5 goals and draw probability stays material given the head-to-head draw rate.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Nice or Lille?
Neither side. Our model splits it 29% Nice, 50% the draw and 21% Lille, with the draw carrying the highest probability.
When and where is Nice vs Lille being played?
20 September 2026 at Allianz Riviera, Nice, kick-off 15:15 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Nice and Lille?
Lille 0-0 Nice on 18 April 2026.
What is the recent form of Nice and Lille?
Nice have taken 3 points from their last five (LDLDD), Lille 10 from theirs (WLWDW). Most recently Nice took a 0-1 defeat away at Auxerre and Lille a 2-0 win at home to Estac Troyes.
How many goals are expected in Nice vs Lille?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.80 — 1.00 for Nice and 1.80 for Lille. It rates over 2.5 goals at 64%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 52%, so its call is yes.