Lorient vs Stade Brestois 29: the numbers, the form and our prediction
Our model makes Lorient the pick at 38% for Lorient vs Stade Brestois 29. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Lorient host Stade Brestois 29 on 2 November 2026 at Stade du Moustoir, Lorient. Lorient are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 38%. This matchday 9 fixture in Ligue 1 is listed as Lorient - Stade Brestois 29. Kick-off is 19:45 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Lorient: they come in on the back of a draw, following two wins, one draw and one defeat before that. That is two wins, two draws and one defeat from the last five, worth 8 points. It leaves them unbeaten in three. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (39 scored and 44 conceded in 31 matches, 1.26 and 1.42 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 51.9 out of 100, and they sit 10th on a goal difference of +1.
Stade Brestois 29: they come in on the back of a defeat, following one win, two draws and one defeat before that. That is one win, two draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 5 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (38 scored and 53 conceded in 31 matches, 1.23 and 1.71 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 38.8 out of 100, and they sit 13th on a goal difference of +2.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Lorient | Stade Brestois 29 |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 10th | 13th |
| Goal difference | +1 | +2 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | DWWLD | LDWDL |
| Points from last 5 | 8 | 5 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 5 / 4 | 10 / 8 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 3 | 0 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 31 | 31 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 1.26 / 1.42 | 1.23 / 1.71 |
| Points per game (2025) | 1.29 | 1.0 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 51.9 | 38.8 |
| Players unavailable | 4 | 6 |
| Model win probability | 38% | 30% |
| Head-to-head wins (last 6) | 2 | 3 |
Key match insights
- Head-to-head balance (last 6): Lorient two wins, Stade Brestois 29 three wins, one draw — a historically tight match-up.
- Most recent meeting: Stade Brestois 29 2-0 Lorient on 07 February 2026.
- Head-to-head goals: 3.17 per game across those meetings, with both teams scoring in three of the six — a fixture that has tended to open up.
- Pre-match form ratings: Lorient 51.9 versus Stade Brestois 29 38.8, a gap of 13.1, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 1.80, over 2.5 goals at 49% and both teams to score at 55%.
- First goal: Leans Lorient's way at 50%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model edges towards Lorient at 38%, and 'edges' is doing real work in that sentence. The goals line points to under 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Lorient's way, especially at Stade du Moustoir.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Lorient or Stade Brestois 29?
Lorient, with an implied win probability of roughly 38%. The full split is 38% Lorient, 32% the draw and 30% Stade Brestois 29.
When and where is Lorient vs Stade Brestois 29 being played?
2 November 2026 at Stade du Moustoir, Lorient, kick-off 19:45 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Lorient and Stade Brestois 29?
Stade Brestois 29 2-0 Lorient on 07 February 2026.
What is the recent form of Lorient and Stade Brestois 29?
Lorient have taken 8 points from their last five (DWWLD), Stade Brestois 29 5 from theirs (LDWDL). Most recently Lorient took a 0-0 draw away at Angers and Stade Brestois 29 a 1-2 defeat at home to Nice.
How many goals are expected in Lorient vs Stade Brestois 29?
The model's combined scoring line is 1.80 — 0.80 for Lorient and 1.00 for Stade Brestois 29. It rates over 2.5 goals at 49%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 55%, so its call is yes.
Who is unavailable?
Our injury feed lists four players unavailable for Lorient and six for Stade Brestois 29 at the time of writing. Confirmed line-ups land about an hour before kick-off.