Marseille vs Toulouse match summary and prediction — Ligue 1
Our model makes Marseille the pick at 49% for Marseille vs Toulouse. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Marseille host Toulouse on 1 November 2026 at Orange Vélodrome, Marseille. Marseille are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 49%. This matchday 9 fixture in Ligue 1 is listed as Marseille - Toulouse. Kick-off is 19:45 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Marseille: they come in on the back of a win, following two wins and two defeats before that. That is three wins, no draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 9 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (97 scored and 63 conceded in 49 matches, 1.98 and 1.29 per game) points to strong attacking output with occasional defensive lapses. That is reflected in a form rating of 56.2 out of 100, and they sit 9th on a goal difference of +5.
Toulouse: they come in on the back of a draw, following two wins, one draw and one defeat before that. That is two wins, two draws and one defeat from the last five, worth 8 points. It leaves them unbeaten in three. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (44 scored and 45 conceded in 34 matches, 1.29 and 1.32 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 55.2 out of 100, and they sit 11th on a goal difference of +1.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Marseille | Toulouse |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 9th | 11th |
| Goal difference | +5 | +1 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WLWLW | DWDLW |
| Points from last 5 | 9 | 8 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 11 / 7 | 10 / 7 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 2 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 49 | 34 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 1.98 / 1.29 | 1.29 / 1.32 |
| Points per game (2025) | 1.65 | 1.35 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 56.2 | 55.2 |
| Players unavailable | 2 | 2 |
| Model win probability | 49% | 27% |
| Head-to-head wins (last 8) | 5 | 0 |
Key match insights
- Head-to-head balance (last 8): Marseille five wins, Toulouse none wins, three draws — an edge to Marseille.
- Most recent meeting: Toulouse 0-1 Marseille on 07 March 2026.
- Head-to-head goals: 3.75 per game across those meetings, with both teams scoring in six of the eight — a fixture that has tended to open up.
- Pre-match form ratings: Marseille 56.2 versus Toulouse 55.2, a gap of 1.0, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 3.00, over 2.5 goals at 62% and both teams to score at 60%.
- First goal: Leans Marseille's way at 53%.
The call
The model tilts to Marseille at 49%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals and draw probability stays material given the head-to-head draw rate. Baseline expectation tilts Marseille's way, especially at Orange Vélodrome.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Marseille or Toulouse?
Marseille, with an implied win probability of roughly 49%. The full split is 49% Marseille, 25% the draw and 27% Toulouse.
When and where is Marseille vs Toulouse being played?
1 November 2026 at Orange Vélodrome, Marseille, kick-off 19:45 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Marseille and Toulouse?
Toulouse 0-1 Marseille on 07 March 2026.
What is the recent form of Marseille and Toulouse?
Marseille have taken 9 points from their last five (WLWLW), Toulouse 8 from theirs (DWDLW). Most recently Marseille took a 4-3 win at home to Le Havre and Toulouse a 0-0 draw at home to Estac Troyes.
How many goals are expected in Marseille vs Toulouse?
The model's combined scoring line is 3.00 — 2.20 for Marseille and 0.80 for Toulouse. It rates over 2.5 goals at 62%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 60%, so its call is yes.
Who is unavailable?
Our injury feed lists two players unavailable for Marseille and two for Toulouse at the time of writing. Confirmed line-ups land about an hour before kick-off.