Paris FC vs Monaco: the numbers, the form and our prediction
There is barely anything between Paris FC and Monaco on our numbers. Form trajectory, a side-by-side comparison, the head-to-head record and where the model does — and does not — commit.
Match summary
Paris FC face Monaco on 1 November 2026 at Stade Jean Bouin, Isilemulino. Monaco are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 37%. This matchday 9 fixture in Ligue 1 is listed as Paris FC - Monaco. Kick-off is 16:15 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Paris FC: they come in on the back of a defeat, following two wins, one draw and one defeat before that. That is two wins, one draw and two defeats from the last five, worth 7 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (43 scored and 48 conceded in 32 matches, 1.34 and 1.5 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 49.3 out of 100, and they sit 6th on a goal difference of +4.
Monaco: they come in on the back of a draw, following two wins, one draw and one defeat before that. That is two wins, two draws and one defeat from the last five, worth 8 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (83 scored and 83 conceded in 51 matches, 1.63 and 1.63 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 46.0 out of 100, and they sit 4th on a goal difference of +4.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Paris FC | Monaco |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 6th | 4th |
| Goal difference | +4 | +4 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LWLWD | DWLWD |
| Points from last 5 | 7 | 8 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 7 / 7 | 8 / 5 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 1 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 32 | 51 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 1.34 / 1.5 | 1.63 / 1.63 |
| Points per game (2025) | 1.25 | 1.51 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 49.3 | 46.0 |
| Players unavailable | 12 | 4 |
| Model win probability | 34% | 37% |
| Head-to-head wins (last 2) | 2 | 0 |
What stands out
- Head-to-head balance (last 2): Paris FC two wins, Monaco none wins, none draws — an edge to Paris FC.
- Most recent meeting: Paris FC 4-1 Monaco on 10 April 2026.
- Head-to-head goals: 3.0 per game across those meetings, with both teams scoring in one of the two — a fixture that has tended to open up.
- Pre-match form ratings: Paris FC 49.3 versus Monaco 46.0, a gap of 3.3, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Availability: Paris FC carry the heavier absentee list, twelve players to four.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 3.40, over 2.5 goals at 54% and both teams to score at 53%.
- First goal: Leans Monaco's way at 47%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model does not commit. Monaco is the nominal pick at 37%, but the three results sit close to even. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Paris FC or Monaco?
Monaco, with an implied win probability of roughly 37%. The full split is 34% Paris FC, 29% the draw and 37% Monaco.
When and where is Paris FC vs Monaco being played?
1 November 2026 at Stade Jean Bouin, Isilemulino, kick-off 16:15 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Paris FC and Monaco?
Paris FC 4-1 Monaco on 10 April 2026.
What is the recent form of Paris FC and Monaco?
Paris FC have taken 7 points from their last five (LWLWD), Monaco 8 from theirs (DWLWD). Most recently Paris FC took a 1-2 defeat away at Lens and Monaco a 1-1 draw at home to Lille.
How many goals are expected in Paris FC vs Monaco?
The model's combined scoring line is 3.40 — 2.00 for Paris FC and 1.40 for Monaco. It rates over 2.5 goals at 54%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 53%, so its call is yes.
Who is unavailable?
Our injury feed lists twelve players unavailable for Paris FC and four for Monaco at the time of writing. Confirmed line-ups land about an hour before kick-off.