Estac Troyes vs Le Mans — form, head-to-head and match prediction
Our model makes Estac Troyes the pick at 41% for Estac Troyes vs Le Mans. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Estac Troyes host Le Mans on 31 October 2026 at Stade de l'Aube, Troyes. Estac Troyes are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 41%. This matchday 9 fixture in Ligue 1 is listed as Estac Troyes - Le Mans. Kick-off is 19:45 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Estac Troyes: they come in on the back of a draw, following one draw and three defeats before that. That is no wins, two draws and three defeats from the last five, worth 2 points. It leaves them winless in five. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (32 scored and 20 conceded in 18 matches, 1.78 and 1.11 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 25.6 out of 100, and they sit 17th on a goal difference of -11.
Le Mans: they come in on the back of a draw, following one win and three defeats before that. That is one win, one draw and three defeats from the last five, worth 4 points. It leaves them winless in four. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (25 scored and 16 conceded in 17 matches, 1.47 and 0.94 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 40.4 out of 100, and they sit 15th on a goal difference of -5.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Estac Troyes | Le Mans |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 17th | 15th |
| Goal difference | -11 | -5 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | DLLDL | DLLLW |
| Points from last 5 | 2 | 4 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 3 / 9 | 5 / 10 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 0 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 18 | 17 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 1.78 / 1.11 | 1.47 / 0.94 |
| Points per game (2025) | 1.78 | 1.71 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 25.6 | 40.4 |
| Players unavailable | 8 | 10 |
| Model win probability | 41% | 29% |
Key match insights
- Pre-match form ratings: Estac Troyes 25.6 versus Le Mans 40.4, a gap of 14.8, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.20, over 2.5 goals at 47% and both teams to score at 52%.
- First goal: Leans Estac Troyes' way at 48%.
The call
The model edges towards Estac Troyes at 41%, and 'edges' is doing real work in that sentence. The goals line points to under 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Estac Troyes's way, especially at Stade de l'Aube.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Estac Troyes or Le Mans?
Estac Troyes, with an implied win probability of roughly 41%. The full split is 41% Estac Troyes, 30% the draw and 29% Le Mans.
When and where is Estac Troyes vs Le Mans being played?
31 October 2026 at Stade de l'Aube, Troyes, kick-off 19:45 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Estac Troyes and Le Mans?
Estac Troyes 0-2 Le Mans on 31 January 2026.
What is the recent form of Estac Troyes and Le Mans?
Estac Troyes have taken 2 points from their last five (DLLDL), Le Mans 4 from theirs (DLLLW). Most recently Estac Troyes took a 0-0 draw away at Toulouse and Le Mans a 1-1 draw away at Auxerre.
How many goals are expected in Estac Troyes vs Le Mans?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.20 — 1.20 for Estac Troyes and 1.00 for Le Mans. It rates over 2.5 goals at 47%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 52%, so its call is yes.
Who is unavailable?
Our injury feed lists eight players unavailable for Estac Troyes and ten for Le Mans at the time of writing. Confirmed line-ups land about an hour before kick-off.