Auxerre vs Paris FC match summary and prediction — Ligue 1
Our model makes Paris FC the pick at 39% for Auxerre vs Paris FC. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Auxerre host Paris FC on 7 November 2026 at Stade de l'Abbé-Deschamps, Auxerre. Paris FC are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 39%. This matchday 10 fixture in Ligue 1 is listed as Auxerre - Paris FC. Kick-off is 16:15 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Auxerre: they come in on the back of a defeat, following two wins, one draw and one defeat before that. That is two wins, one draw and two defeats from the last five, worth 7 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (29 scored and 36 conceded in 29 matches, 1.0 and 1.24 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 45.8 out of 100, and they sit 14th on a goal difference of -10.
Paris FC: they come in on the back of a win, following two wins and two defeats before that. That is three wins, no draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 9 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (43 scored and 48 conceded in 32 matches, 1.34 and 1.5 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 56.5 out of 100, and they sit 4th on a goal difference of +6.
Side by side
| Statistic | Auxerre | Paris FC |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 14th | 4th |
| Goal difference | -10 | +6 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LDWLW | WLWLW |
| Points from last 5 | 7 | 9 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 10 / 14 | 10 / 8 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 0 | 0 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 29 | 32 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 1.0 / 1.24 | 1.34 / 1.5 |
| Points per game (2025) | 1.0 | 1.25 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 45.8 | 56.5 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 34% | 39% |
Key match insights
- Pre-match form ratings: Auxerre 45.8 versus Paris FC 56.5, a gap of 10.7, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Table gap: Ten places separate them, the kind of margin that usually shows in the first twenty minutes.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 3.60, over 2.5 goals at 51% and both teams to score at 55%.
- First goal: Leans Paris FC's way at 48%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model edges towards Paris FC at 39%, and 'edges' is doing real work in that sentence. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Auxerre or Paris FC?
Paris FC, with an implied win probability of roughly 39%. The full split is 34% Auxerre, 27% the draw and 39% Paris FC.
When and where is Auxerre vs Paris FC being played?
7 November 2026 at Stade de l'Abbé-Deschamps, Auxerre, kick-off 16:15 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Auxerre and Paris FC?
Auxerre 0-0 Paris FC on 08 February 2026.
What is the recent form of Auxerre and Paris FC?
Auxerre have taken 7 points from their last five (LDWLW), Paris FC 9 from theirs (WLWLW). Most recently Auxerre took a 1-5 defeat away at Strasbourg and Paris FC a 3-1 win at home to Monaco.
How many goals are expected in Auxerre vs Paris FC?
The model's combined scoring line is 3.60 — 1.40 for Auxerre and 2.20 for Paris FC. It rates over 2.5 goals at 51%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 55%, so its call is yes.