Le Havre vs Lorient: match summary, form and prediction
There is barely anything between Le Havre and Lorient on our numbers. Form trajectory, a side-by-side comparison, the head-to-head record and where the model does — and does not — commit.
Match summary
Le Havre host Lorient on 8 November 2026 at Stade Océane, Le Havre. Le Havre are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 37%. This matchday 10 fixture in Ligue 1 is listed as Le Havre - Lorient. Kick-off is 16:15 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Le Havre: they come in on four defeats in a row, following one win before that. That is one win, no draws and four defeats from the last five, worth 3 points. It leaves them winless in four. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (27 scored and 40 conceded in 30 matches, 0.9 and 1.33 per game) underlines how hard they have found it to score. That is reflected in a form rating of 22.2 out of 100, and they sit 18th on a goal difference of -11.
Lorient: they come in on the back of a defeat, following two wins, one draw and one defeat before that. That is two wins, one draw and two defeats from the last five, worth 7 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (39 scored and 44 conceded in 31 matches, 1.26 and 1.42 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 48.1 out of 100, and they sit 11th on a goal difference of -1.
Side by side
| Statistic | Le Havre | Lorient |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 18th | 11th |
| Goal difference | -11 | -1 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LLLLW | LDWWL |
| Points from last 5 | 3 | 7 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 11 / 14 | 3 / 4 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 0 | 3 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 30 | 31 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 0.9 / 1.33 | 1.26 / 1.42 |
| Points per game (2025) | 0.93 | 1.29 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 22.2 | 48.1 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 37% | 33% |
| Head-to-head wins (last 4) | 2 | 0 |
Key match insights
- Head-to-head balance (last 4): Le Havre two wins, Lorient none wins, two draws — an edge to Le Havre.
- Most recent meeting: Lorient 0-2 Le Havre on 17 May 2026.
- Head-to-head goals: 3.25 per game across those meetings, with both teams scoring in two of the four — a fixture that has tended to open up.
- Pre-match form ratings: Le Havre 22.2 versus Lorient 48.1, a gap of 25.8, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.00, over 2.5 goals at 48% and both teams to score at 53%.
- First goal: Leans Le Havre's way at 47%.
The call
The model does not commit. Le Havre is the nominal pick at 37%, but the three results sit close to even. Lorient's stronger recent metrics back it, the goals line points to under 2.5 goals and draw probability stays material given the head-to-head draw rate. Baseline expectation tilts Le Havre's way, especially at Stade Océane.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Le Havre or Lorient?
Le Havre, with an implied win probability of roughly 37%. The full split is 37% Le Havre, 30% the draw and 33% Lorient.
When and where is Le Havre vs Lorient being played?
8 November 2026 at Stade Océane, Le Havre, kick-off 16:15 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Le Havre and Lorient?
Lorient 0-2 Le Havre on 17 May 2026.
What is the recent form of Le Havre and Lorient?
Le Havre have taken 3 points from their last five (LLLLW), Lorient 7 from theirs (LDWWL). Most recently Le Havre took a 1-5 defeat at home to Paris Saint Germain and Lorient a 0-2 defeat at home to Stade Brestois 29.
How many goals are expected in Le Havre vs Lorient?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.00 — 1.20 for Le Havre and 0.80 for Lorient. It rates over 2.5 goals at 48%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 53%, so its call is yes.