Paris Saint Germain vs Estac Troyes Prediction

Paris Saint Germain vs Estac Troyes: match summary, form and prediction

Our model makes Paris Saint Germain the pick at 86% for Paris Saint Germain vs Estac Troyes. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.

The fixture at a glance

Paris Saint Germain face Estac Troyes on 7 November 2026 at Parc des Princes, Paris. Paris Saint Germain are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 86%. This matchday 10 fixture in Ligue 1 is listed as Paris Saint Germain - Estac Troyes. Kick-off is 19:45 UTC.

Form analysis and trajectory

Paris Saint Germain: they come in on a five-match winning sequence. That is five wins, no draws and no defeats from the last five, worth 15 points. It leaves them unbeaten in five. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (136 scored and 62 conceded in 57 matches, 2.39 and 1.09 per game) points to strong attacking output with occasional defensive lapses. That is reflected in a form rating of 77.8 out of 100, and they sit 1st on a goal difference of +11.

Estac Troyes: they come in on the back of a win, following two draws and two defeats before that. That is one win, two draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 5 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (32 scored and 20 conceded in 18 matches, 1.78 and 1.11 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 36.1 out of 100, and they sit 16th on a goal difference of -9.

Side by side

What stands out

• Head-to-head balance (last 2): Paris Saint Germain two wins, Estac Troyes none wins, none draws — an edge to Paris Saint Germain.
• Most recent meeting: Estac Troyes 1-3 Paris Saint Germain on 07 May 2023.
• Head-to-head goals: 5.5 per game across those meetings, with both teams scoring in all of them — a fixture that has tended to open up.
• Pre-match form ratings: Paris Saint Germain 77.8 versus Estac Troyes 36.1, a gap of 41.7, which aligns with the model's favourite.
• Table gap: 15 places separate them, the kind of margin that usually shows in the first twenty minutes.
• Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
• Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 3.80, over 2.5 goals at 66% and both teams to score at 53%.
• First goal: Leans Paris Saint Germain's way at 83%.

Sentiment and prediction

The model leans firmly towards Paris Saint Germain at 86%, a gap of 77 percentage points to the next outcome. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Paris Saint Germain's way, especially at Parc des Princes.

This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.

Frequently asked questions

Who is favoured to win the match: Paris Saint Germain or Estac Troyes?

Paris Saint Germain, with an implied win probability of roughly 86%. The full split is 86% Paris Saint Germain, 10% the draw and 4% Estac Troyes.

When and where is Paris Saint Germain vs Estac Troyes being played?

7 November 2026 at Parc des Princes, Paris, kick-off 19:45 UTC.

What was the result of the last match between Paris Saint Germain and Estac Troyes?

Estac Troyes 1-3 Paris Saint Germain on 07 May 2023.

What is the recent form of Paris Saint Germain and Estac Troyes?

Paris Saint Germain have taken 15 points from their last five (WWWWW), Estac Troyes 5 from theirs (WDLLD). Most recently Paris Saint Germain took a 5-1 win away at Le Havre and Estac Troyes a 2-0 win at home to Le Mans.

How many goals are expected in Paris Saint Germain vs Estac Troyes?

The model's combined scoring line is 3.80 — 3.00 for Paris Saint Germain and 0.80 for Estac Troyes. It rates over 2.5 goals at 66%.

Will both teams score?

The model rates both teams to score at 53%, so its call is yes.