Rennes vs Lille: match summary, form and prediction
Our model makes Rennes the pick at 48% for Rennes vs Lille. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Rennes host Lille on 8 November 2026 at Roazhon Park, Rennes. Rennes are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 48%. This matchday 10 fixture in Ligue 1 is listed as Rennes - Lille. Kick-off is 14:00 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Rennes: they come in on the back of a defeat, following two wins, one draw and one defeat before that. That is two wins, one draw and two defeats from the last five, worth 7 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (13 scored and 12 conceded in six matches, 2.17 and 2.0 per game) points to strong attacking output with occasional defensive lapses. That is reflected in a form rating of 45.2 out of 100, and they sit 5th on a goal difference of +1.
Lille: they come in on the back of a draw, following one win, two draws and one defeat before that. That is one win, three draws and one defeat from the last five, worth 6 points. It leaves them unbeaten in three. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (7 scored and 4 conceded in six matches, 1.17 and 0.67 per game) points to a side built on keeping the game tight rather than winning it early. That is reflected in a form rating of 53.2 out of 100, and they sit 2nd on a goal difference of +6.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Rennes | Lille |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 5th | 2nd |
| Goal difference | +1 | +6 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LWDLW | DWDLD |
| Points from last 5 | 7 | 6 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 12 / 12 | 5 / 6 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 2 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 6 | 6 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 2.17 / 2.0 | 1.17 / 0.67 |
| Points per game (2026) | 1.67 | 1.83 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 45.2 | 53.2 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 48% | 26% |
| Head-to-head wins (last 8) | 1 | 4 |
Key match insights
- Head-to-head balance (last 8): Rennes one win, Lille four wins, three draws — an edge to Lille.
- Most recent meeting: Rennes 1-2 Lille on 15 March 2026.
- Head-to-head goals: 2.75 per game across those meetings, with both teams scoring in five of the eight — broadly an average game for goals.
- Pre-match form ratings: Rennes 45.2 versus Lille 53.2, a gap of 7.9, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 3.40, over 2.5 goals at 55% and both teams to score at 54%.
- First goal: Leans Rennes' way at 53%.
The call
The model tilts to Rennes at 48%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals and draw probability stays material given the head-to-head draw rate. Baseline expectation tilts Rennes's way, especially at Roazhon Park.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Rennes or Lille?
Rennes, with an implied win probability of roughly 48%. The full split is 48% Rennes, 25% the draw and 26% Lille.
When and where is Rennes vs Lille being played?
8 November 2026 at Roazhon Park, Rennes, kick-off 14:00 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Rennes and Lille?
Rennes 1-2 Lille on 15 March 2026.
What is the recent form of Rennes and Lille?
Rennes have taken 7 points from their last five (LWDLW), Lille 6 from theirs (DWDLD). Most recently Rennes took a 2-5 defeat away at Nice and Lille a 0-0 draw away at Bodo/Glimt.
How many goals are expected in Rennes vs Lille?
The model's combined scoring line is 3.40 — 2.20 for Rennes and 1.20 for Lille. It rates over 2.5 goals at 55%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 54%, so its call is yes.