Toulouse vs Strasbourg match summary and prediction — Ligue 1
Our model makes Toulouse the pick at 40% for Toulouse vs Strasbourg. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Toulouse host Strasbourg on 6 November 2026 at Stadium de Toulouse, Toulouse. Toulouse are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 40%. This matchday 10 fixture in Ligue 1 is listed as Toulouse - Strasbourg. Kick-off is 19:45 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Toulouse: they come in on the back of a defeat, following one win, two draws and one defeat before that. That is one win, two draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 5 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (44 scored and 45 conceded in 34 matches, 1.29 and 1.32 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 51.4 out of 100, and they sit 11th on a goal difference of -1.
Strasbourg: they come in on the back of a win, following four defeats before that. That is one win, no draws and four defeats from the last five, worth 3 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (75 scored and 55 conceded in 43 matches, 1.74 and 1.28 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 34.5 out of 100, and they sit 12th on a goal difference of -2.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Toulouse | Strasbourg |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 11th | 12th |
| Goal difference | -1 | -2 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LDWDL | WLLLL |
| Points from last 5 | 5 | 3 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 7 / 7 | 8 / 11 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 2 | 0 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 34 | 43 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 1.29 / 1.32 | 1.74 / 1.28 |
| Points per game (2025) | 1.35 | 1.6 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 51.4 | 34.5 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 40% | 35% |
| Head-to-head wins (last 8) | 3 | 3 |
What stands out
- Head-to-head balance (last 8): Toulouse three wins, Strasbourg three wins, two draws — a historically tight match-up.
- Most recent meeting: Strasbourg 1-2 Toulouse on 03 May 2026.
- Head-to-head goals: 2.38 per game across those meetings, with both teams scoring in five of the eight — broadly an average game for goals.
- Pre-match form ratings: Toulouse 51.4 versus Strasbourg 34.5, a gap of 16.9, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 3.80, over 2.5 goals at 56% and both teams to score at 53%.
- First goal: Leans Toulouse's way at 48%.
The call
The model edges towards Toulouse at 40%, and 'edges' is doing real work in that sentence. Toulouse's form line and home advantage back it and the goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Toulouse's way, especially at Stadium de Toulouse.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Toulouse or Strasbourg?
Toulouse, with an implied win probability of roughly 40%. The full split is 40% Toulouse, 25% the draw and 35% Strasbourg.
When and where is Toulouse vs Strasbourg being played?
6 November 2026 at Stadium de Toulouse, Toulouse, kick-off 19:45 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Toulouse and Strasbourg?
Strasbourg 1-2 Toulouse on 03 May 2026.
What is the recent form of Toulouse and Strasbourg?
Toulouse have taken 5 points from their last five (LDWDL), Strasbourg 3 from theirs (WLLLL). Most recently Toulouse took a 0-2 defeat away at Marseille and Strasbourg a 5-1 win at home to Auxerre.
How many goals are expected in Toulouse vs Strasbourg?
The model's combined scoring line is 3.80 — 0.40 for Toulouse and 3.40 for Strasbourg. It rates over 2.5 goals at 56%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 53%, so its call is yes.