Motor Lublin vs Zaglebie Lubin match summary and prediction — Ekstraklasa
Our model makes Motor Lublin the pick at 54% for Motor Lublin vs Zaglebie Lubin. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Motor Lublin host Zaglebie Lubin on 23 October 2026 at Motor Lublin Arena, Lublin. Motor Lublin are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 54%. This matchday 12 fixture in Ekstraklasa is listed as Motor Lublin - Zaglebie Lubin. Kick-off is 16:00 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Motor Lublin: they come in on a two-match winning sequence, following one draw and two defeats before that. That is two wins, one draw and two defeats from the last five, worth 7 points. It leaves them unbeaten in three. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (21 scored and 22 conceded in 15 matches, 1.4 and 1.47 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 47.3 out of 100, and they sit 11th on a goal difference of -4.
Zaglebie Lubin: they come in on the back of a win, following two wins and two defeats before that. That is three wins, no draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 9 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (14 scored and 14 conceded in 16 matches, 0.88 and 0.88 per game) points to a side built on keeping the game tight rather than winning it early. That is reflected in a form rating of 55.0 out of 100, and they sit 7th on a goal difference of 0.
Side by side
| Statistic | Motor Lublin | Zaglebie Lubin |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 11th | 7th |
| Goal difference | -4 | 0 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WWDLL | WLWLW |
| Points from last 5 | 7 | 9 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 9 / 9 | 6 / 7 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 2 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 15 | 16 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 1.4 / 1.47 | 0.88 / 0.88 |
| Points per game (2025) | 1.47 | 1.25 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 47.3 | 55.0 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 54% | 10% |
Key match insights
- Pre-match form ratings: Motor Lublin 47.3 versus Zaglebie Lubin 55.0, a gap of 7.7, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.95, over 2.5 goals at 32% and both teams to score at 44%.
- First goal: Leans Motor Lublin's way at 69%.
The call
The model tilts to Motor Lublin at 54%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. The goals line points to under 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Motor Lublin's way, especially at Motor Lublin Arena.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Motor Lublin or Zaglebie Lubin?
Motor Lublin, with an implied win probability of roughly 54%. The full split is 54% Motor Lublin, 36% the draw and 10% Zaglebie Lubin.
When and where is Motor Lublin vs Zaglebie Lubin being played?
23 October 2026 at Motor Lublin Arena, Lublin, kick-off 16:00 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Motor Lublin and Zaglebie Lubin?
Motor Lublin 1-0 Zaglebie Lubin on 20 March 2026.
What is the recent form of Motor Lublin and Zaglebie Lubin?
Motor Lublin have taken 7 points from their last five (WWDLL), Zaglebie Lubin 9 from theirs (WLWLW). Most recently Motor Lublin took a 3-2 win at home to Slask Wroclaw and Zaglebie Lubin a 1-0 win at home to Jagiellonia.
How many goals are expected in Motor Lublin vs Zaglebie Lubin?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.95 — 1.75 for Motor Lublin and 1.20 for Zaglebie Lubin. It rates over 2.5 goals at 32%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 44%, so its call is no.