Raków Częstochowa vs Pogon Szczecin — form, head-to-head and match prediction
Our model makes Raków Częstochowa the pick at 43% for Raków Częstochowa vs Pogon Szczecin. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Raków Częstochowa host Pogon Szczecin on 2 November 2026 at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków w Częstochowie, Czestochowa. Raków Częstochowa are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 43%. This matchday 13 fixture in Ekstraklasa is listed as Raków Częstochowa - Pogon Szczecin. Kick-off is 19:30 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Raków Częstochowa: they come in on the back of a draw, following two wins and two defeats before that. That is two wins, one draw and two defeats from the last five, worth 7 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (23 scored and 17 conceded in 17 matches, 1.35 and 1.0 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 32.0 out of 100, and they sit 18th on a goal difference of -12.
Pogon Szczecin: they come in on a three-match winning sequence, following one win and one draw before that. That is four wins, one draw and no defeats from the last five, worth 13 points. It leaves them unbeaten in five. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (18 scored and 17 conceded in 15 matches, 1.2 and 1.13 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 77.5 out of 100, and they sit 4th on a goal difference of +10.
Side by side
| Statistic | Raków Częstochowa | Pogon Szczecin |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 18th | 4th |
| Goal difference | -12 | +10 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | DLWLW | WWWDW |
| Points from last 5 | 7 | 13 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 9 / 9 | 10 / 5 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 0 | 2 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 17 | 15 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 1.35 / 1.0 | 1.2 / 1.13 |
| Points per game (2025) | 1.53 | 1.4 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 32.0 | 77.5 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 43% | 33% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: Raków Częstochowa 32.0 versus Pogon Szczecin 77.5, a gap of 45.5, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Table gap: 14 places separate them, the kind of margin that usually shows in the first twenty minutes.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 3.60, over 2.5 goals at 55% and both teams to score at 57%.
- First goal: Leans Raków Częstochowa's way at 52%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model edges towards Raków Częstochowa at 43%, and 'edges' is doing real work in that sentence. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Raków Częstochowa's way, especially at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków w Częstochowie.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Raków Częstochowa or Pogon Szczecin?
Raków Częstochowa, with an implied win probability of roughly 43%. The full split is 43% Raków Częstochowa, 24% the draw and 33% Pogon Szczecin.
When and where is Raków Częstochowa vs Pogon Szczecin being played?
2 November 2026 at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków w Częstochowie, Czestochowa, kick-off 19:30 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Raków Częstochowa and Pogon Szczecin?
Raków Częstochowa 2-0 Pogon Szczecin on 08 March 2026.
What is the recent form of Raków Częstochowa and Pogon Szczecin?
Raków Częstochowa have taken 7 points from their last five (DLWLW), Pogon Szczecin 13 from theirs (WWWDW). Most recently Raków Częstochowa took a 1-1 draw away at Motor Lublin and Pogon Szczecin a 4-3 win at home to Radomiak Radom.
How many goals are expected in Raków Częstochowa vs Pogon Szczecin?
The model's combined scoring line is 3.60 — 1.20 for Raków Częstochowa and 2.40 for Pogon Szczecin. It rates over 2.5 goals at 55%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 57%, so its call is yes.