Legia Warszawa vs Raków Częstochowa: match summary, form and prediction
Our model makes Legia Warszawa the pick at 50% for Legia Warszawa vs Raków Częstochowa. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Legia Warszawa face Raków Częstochowa on 8 November 2026 at Stadion Wojska Polskiego, Warsaw. Legia Warszawa are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 50%. This matchday 14 fixture in Ekstraklasa is listed as Legia Warszawa - Raków Częstochowa. Kick-off is 16:30 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Legia Warszawa: they come in on the back of a draw, following two wins, one draw and one defeat before that. That is two wins, two draws and one defeat from the last five, worth 8 points. It leaves them three games without a win. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (9 scored and 7 conceded in six matches, 1.5 and 1.17 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 54.7 out of 100, and they sit 3rd on a goal difference of +12.
Raków Częstochowa: they come in on the back of a win, following one win, one draw and two defeats before that. That is two wins, one draw and two defeats from the last five, worth 7 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (11 scored and 12 conceded in nine matches, 1.22 and 1.33 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 42.5 out of 100, and they sit 17th on a goal difference of -10.
Side by side
| Statistic | Legia Warszawa | Raków Częstochowa |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 3rd | 17th |
| Goal difference | +12 | -10 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | DLDWW | WDLWL |
| Points from last 5 | 8 | 7 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 9 / 4 | 8 / 9 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 2 | 0 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 6 | 9 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 1.5 / 1.17 | 1.22 / 1.33 |
| Points per game (2026) | 1.5 | 1.11 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 54.7 | 42.5 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 50% | 24% |
Key match insights
- Pre-match form ratings: Legia Warszawa 54.7 versus Raków Częstochowa 42.5, a gap of 12.2, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Table gap: 14 places separate them, the kind of margin that usually shows in the first twenty minutes.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.80, over 2.5 goals at 55% and both teams to score at 58%.
- First goal: Leans Legia Warszawa's way at 57%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model tilts to Legia Warszawa at 50%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. Raków Częstochowa's stronger recent metrics back it and the goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Legia Warszawa's way, especially at Stadion Wojska Polskiego.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Legia Warszawa or Raków Częstochowa?
Legia Warszawa, with an implied win probability of roughly 50%. The full split is 50% Legia Warszawa, 26% the draw and 24% Raków Częstochowa.
When and where is Legia Warszawa vs Raków Częstochowa being played?
8 November 2026 at Stadion Wojska Polskiego, Warsaw, kick-off 16:30 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Legia Warszawa and Raków Częstochowa?
Legia Warszawa 1-1 Raków Częstochowa on 22 March 2026.
What is the recent form of Legia Warszawa and Raków Częstochowa?
Legia Warszawa have taken 8 points from their last five (DLDWW), Raków Częstochowa 7 from theirs (WDLWL). Most recently Legia Warszawa took a 0-0 draw away at Gornik Zabrze and Raków Częstochowa a 3-1 win at home to Pogon Szczecin.
How many goals are expected in Legia Warszawa vs Raków Częstochowa?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.80 — 1.20 for Legia Warszawa and 1.60 for Raków Częstochowa. It rates over 2.5 goals at 55%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 58%, so its call is yes.