Novi Pazar vs Mladost Lucani: the numbers, the form and our prediction
Our model makes Novi Pazar the pick at 54% for Novi Pazar vs Mladost Lucani. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Novi Pazar face Mladost Lucani on 7 November 2026 at Gradski Stadion, Novi Pazar. Novi Pazar are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 54%. This matchday 15 fixture in Super Liga is listed as Novi Pazar - Mladost Lucani. Kick-off is 17:00 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Novi Pazar: they come in on the back of a defeat, following two wins and two defeats before that. That is two wins, no draws and three defeats from the last five, worth 6 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (7 scored and 11 conceded in eight matches, 0.88 and 1.38 per game) underlines how hard they have found it to score. That is reflected in a form rating of 37.6 out of 100, and they sit 10th on a goal difference of -3.
Mladost Lucani: they come in on the back of a defeat, following three draws and one defeat before that. That is no wins, three draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 3 points. It leaves them winless in five. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (5 scored and 14 conceded in eight matches, 0.62 and 1.75 per game) underlines issues at both ends. That is reflected in a form rating of 39.9 out of 100, and they sit 8th on a goal difference of -7.
Side by side
| Statistic | Novi Pazar | Mladost Lucani |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 10th | 8th |
| Goal difference | -3 | -7 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LWWLL | LDDLD |
| Points from last 5 | 6 | 3 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 6 / 6 | 3 / 8 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 1 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 8 | 8 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 0.88 / 1.38 | 0.62 / 1.75 |
| Points per game (2026) | 1.0 | 0.88 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 37.6 | 39.9 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 54% | 18% |
| Head-to-head wins (last 2) | 1 | 0 |
Key match insights
- Head-to-head balance (last 2): Novi Pazar one win, Mladost Lucani none wins, one draw — a historically tight match-up.
- Most recent meeting: Mladost Lucani 0-0 Novi Pazar on 26 July 2026.
- Head-to-head goals: 1.0 per game across those meetings, with both teams scoring in none of the two — a fixture that has historically stayed tight.
- Pre-match form ratings: Novi Pazar 37.6 versus Mladost Lucani 39.9, a gap of 2.3, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 1.80, over 2.5 goals at 54% and both teams to score at 53%.
- First goal: Leans Novi Pazar's way at 59%.
The call
The model tilts to Novi Pazar at 54%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. Novi Pazar's form line and home advantage back it and the goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Novi Pazar's way, especially at Gradski Stadion.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Novi Pazar or Mladost Lucani?
Novi Pazar, with an implied win probability of roughly 54%. The full split is 54% Novi Pazar, 28% the draw and 18% Mladost Lucani.
When and where is Novi Pazar vs Mladost Lucani being played?
7 November 2026 at Gradski Stadion, Novi Pazar, kick-off 17:00 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Novi Pazar and Mladost Lucani?
Mladost Lucani 0-0 Novi Pazar on 26 July 2026.
What is the recent form of Novi Pazar and Mladost Lucani?
Novi Pazar have taken 6 points from their last five (LWWLL), Mladost Lucani 3 from theirs (LDDLD). Most recently Novi Pazar took a 0-2 defeat away at Radnicki 1923 and Mladost Lucani a 0-1 defeat at home to Radnik Surdulica.
How many goals are expected in Novi Pazar vs Mladost Lucani?
The model's combined scoring line is 1.80 — 1.20 for Novi Pazar and 0.60 for Mladost Lucani. It rates over 2.5 goals at 54%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 53%, so its call is yes.