FC Lugano vs FC Basel 1893 match summary and prediction — Super League
Our model makes FC Lugano the pick at 67% for FC Lugano vs FC Basel 1893. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
FC Basel 1893 travel to FC Lugano on 1 November 2026 at St. Jakob-Park, Basel. FC Lugano are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 67%. This matchday 12 fixture in Super League is listed as FC Lugano - FC Basel 1893. Kick-off is 15:30 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
FC Lugano: they come in on a five-match winning sequence. That is five wins, no draws and no defeats from the last five, worth 15 points. It leaves them unbeaten in five. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (34 scored and 12 conceded in eleven matches, 3.09 and 1.09 per game) points to strong attacking output with occasional defensive lapses. That is reflected in a form rating of 74.6 out of 100, and they sit 1st on a goal difference of +25.
FC Basel 1893: they come in on the back of a draw, following one win and three defeats before that. That is one win, one draw and three defeats from the last five, worth 4 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (10 scored and 10 conceded in six matches, 1.67 and 1.67 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 37.6 out of 100, and they sit 7th on a goal difference of -3.
Side by side
| Statistic | FC Lugano | FC Basel 1893 |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 1st | 7th |
| Goal difference | +25 | -3 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WWWWW | DWLLL |
| Points from last 5 | 15 | 4 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 19 / 6 | 7 / 13 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 2 | 2 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 11 | 6 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 3.09 / 1.09 | 1.67 / 1.67 |
| Points per game (2026) | 2.64 | 1.17 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 74.6 | 37.6 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 67% | 14% |
| Head-to-head wins (last 2) | 2 | 0 |
What stands out
- Head-to-head balance (last 2): FC Lugano two wins, FC Basel 1893 none wins, none draws — an edge to FC Lugano.
- Most recent meeting: FC Basel 1893 1-3 FC Lugano on 06 September 2026.
- Head-to-head goals: 4.0 per game across those meetings, with both teams scoring in one of the two — a fixture that has tended to open up.
- Pre-match form ratings: FC Lugano 74.6 versus FC Basel 1893 37.6, a gap of 37.0, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 4.80, over 2.5 goals at 74% and both teams to score at 67%.
- First goal: Leans FC Lugano's way at 68%.
The call
The model leans firmly towards FC Lugano at 67%, a gap of 49 percentage points to the next outcome. FC Lugano's form line and home advantage back it and the goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts FC Lugano's way, especially at St. Jakob-Park.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: FC Lugano or FC Basel 1893?
FC Lugano, with an implied win probability of roughly 67%. The full split is 67% FC Lugano, 19% the draw and 14% FC Basel 1893.
When and where is FC Lugano vs FC Basel 1893 being played?
1 November 2026 at St. Jakob-Park, Basel, kick-off 15:30 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between FC Lugano and FC Basel 1893?
FC Basel 1893 1-3 FC Lugano on 06 September 2026.
What is the recent form of FC Lugano and FC Basel 1893?
FC Lugano have taken 15 points from their last five (WWWWW), FC Basel 1893 4 from theirs (DWLLL). Most recently FC Lugano took a 3-2 win away at FC Thun and FC Basel 1893 a 0-0 draw at home to Grasshoppers.
How many goals are expected in FC Lugano vs FC Basel 1893?
The model's combined scoring line is 4.80 — 2.80 for FC Lugano and 2.00 for FC Basel 1893. It rates over 2.5 goals at 74%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 67%, so its call is yes.