FC Thun vs FC Basel 1893: the numbers, the form and our prediction
Our model makes FC Thun the pick at 49% for FC Thun vs FC Basel 1893. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
FC Thun host FC Basel 1893 on 8 November 2026 at Stockhorn Arena, Thun. FC Thun are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 49%. This matchday 13 fixture in Super League is listed as FC Thun - FC Basel 1893. Kick-off is 15:30 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
FC Thun: they come in on the back of a win, following one draw and three defeats before that. That is one win, one draw and three defeats from the last five, worth 4 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (17 scored and 26 conceded in eleven matches, 1.55 and 2.36 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 42.5 out of 100, and they sit 9th on a goal difference of -10.
FC Basel 1893: they come in on the back of a defeat, following one win, one draw and two defeats before that. That is one win, one draw and three defeats from the last five, worth 4 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (11 scored and 12 conceded in seven matches, 1.57 and 1.71 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 37.3 out of 100, and they sit 7th on a goal difference of -4.
Side by side
| Statistic | FC Thun | FC Basel 1893 |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 9th | 7th |
| Goal difference | -10 | -4 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WLLDL | LDWLL |
| Points from last 5 | 4 | 4 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 9 / 11 | 7 / 12 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 0 | 2 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 11 | 7 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 1.55 / 2.36 | 1.57 / 1.71 |
| Points per game (2026) | 0.73 | 1.0 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 42.5 | 37.3 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 49% | 30% |
| Head-to-head wins (last 4) | 2 | 2 |
Key match insights
- Head-to-head balance (last 4): FC Thun two wins, FC Basel 1893 two wins, none draws — a historically tight match-up.
- Most recent meeting: FC Basel 1893 4-2 FC Thun on 09 August 2026.
- Head-to-head goals: 4.25 per game across those meetings, with both teams scoring in all of them — a fixture that has tended to open up.
- Pre-match form ratings: FC Thun 42.5 versus FC Basel 1893 37.3, a gap of 5.2, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 3.20, over 2.5 goals at 69% and both teams to score at 65%.
- First goal: Leans FC Thun's way at 57%.
The call
The model tilts to FC Thun at 49%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts FC Thun's way, especially at Stockhorn Arena.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: FC Thun or FC Basel 1893?
FC Thun, with an implied win probability of roughly 49%. The full split is 49% FC Thun, 21% the draw and 30% FC Basel 1893.
When and where is FC Thun vs FC Basel 1893 being played?
8 November 2026 at Stockhorn Arena, Thun, kick-off 15:30 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between FC Thun and FC Basel 1893?
FC Basel 1893 4-2 FC Thun on 09 August 2026.
What is the recent form of FC Thun and FC Basel 1893?
FC Thun have taken 4 points from their last five (WLLDL), FC Basel 1893 4 from theirs (LDWLL). Most recently FC Thun took a 5-4 win away at Lausanne and FC Basel 1893 a 1-2 defeat away at FC Lugano.
How many goals are expected in FC Thun vs FC Basel 1893?
The model's combined scoring line is 3.20 — 1.80 for FC Thun and 1.40 for FC Basel 1893. It rates over 2.5 goals at 69%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 65%, so its call is yes.