Machida Zelvia vs Yokohama F. Marinos: the numbers, the form and our prediction
Our model makes Machida Zelvia the pick at 70% for Machida Zelvia vs Yokohama F. Marinos. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Yokohama F. Marinos travel to Machida Zelvia on 12 September 2026 at Machida GION Stadium, Machida. Machida Zelvia are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 70%. This matchday 7 fixture in J1 League is listed as Machida Zelvia - Yokohama F. Marinos. Kick-off is 10:00 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Machida Zelvia: they come in on a two-match winning sequence, following two wins and one draw before that. That is four wins, one draw and no defeats from the last five, worth 13 points. It leaves them unbeaten in five. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (27 scored and 22 conceded in 20 matches, 1.35 and 1.1 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 71.6 out of 100, and they sit 1st on a goal difference of +13.
Yokohama F. Marinos: they come in on the back of a win, following two wins, one draw and one defeat before that. That is three wins, one draw and one defeat from the last five, worth 10 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (32 scored and 30 conceded in 20 matches, 1.6 and 1.5 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 58.8 out of 100, and they sit 7th on a goal difference of +2.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Machida Zelvia | Yokohama F. Marinos |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 1st | 7th |
| Goal difference | +13 | +2 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WWDWW | WDLWW |
| Points from last 5 | 13 | 10 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 12 / 4 | 7 / 4 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 3 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 20 | 20 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 1.35 / 1.1 | 1.6 / 1.5 |
| Points per game (2026) | 1.8 | 1.2 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 71.6 | 58.8 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 70% | 4% |
| Head-to-head wins (last 2) | 2 | 0 |
What stands out
- Head-to-head balance (last 2): Machida Zelvia two wins, Yokohama F. Marinos none wins, none draws — an edge to Machida Zelvia.
- Most recent meeting: Machida Zelvia 2-0 Yokohama F. Marinos on 06 May 2026.
- Head-to-head goals: 3.5 per game across those meetings, with both teams scoring in one of the two — a fixture that has tended to open up.
- Pre-match form ratings: Machida Zelvia 71.6 versus Yokohama F. Marinos 58.8, a gap of 12.8, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 1.00, over 2.5 goals at 14% and both teams to score at 35%.
- First goal: Leans Machida Zelvia's way at 73%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model leans firmly towards Machida Zelvia at 70%, a gap of 44 percentage points to the next outcome. The goals line points to under 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Machida Zelvia's way, especially at Machida GION Stadium.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Machida Zelvia or Yokohama F. Marinos?
Machida Zelvia, with an implied win probability of roughly 70%. The full split is 70% Machida Zelvia, 26% the draw and 4% Yokohama F. Marinos.
When and where is Machida Zelvia vs Yokohama F. Marinos being played?
12 September 2026 at Machida GION Stadium, Machida, kick-off 10:00 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Machida Zelvia and Yokohama F. Marinos?
Machida Zelvia 2-0 Yokohama F. Marinos on 06 May 2026.
What is the recent form of Machida Zelvia and Yokohama F. Marinos?
Machida Zelvia have taken 13 points from their last five (WWDWW), Yokohama F. Marinos 10 from theirs (WDLWW). Most recently Machida Zelvia took a 3-1 win away at Nagoya Grampus and Yokohama F. Marinos a 2-0 win away at Kashiwa Reysol.
How many goals are expected in Machida Zelvia vs Yokohama F. Marinos?
The model's combined scoring line is 1.00 — 1.00 for Machida Zelvia and 0.00 for Yokohama F. Marinos. It rates over 2.5 goals at 14%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 35%, so its call is no.