Shimizu S-pulse vs Avispa Fukuoka — form, head-to-head and match prediction
Our model makes Shimizu S-pulse the pick at 75% for Shimizu S-pulse vs Avispa Fukuoka. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Shimizu S-pulse face Avispa Fukuoka on 12 September 2026 at IAI Stadium Nihondaira, Shizuoka. Shimizu S-pulse are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 75%. This matchday 7 fixture in J1 League is listed as Shimizu S-pulse - Avispa Fukuoka. Kick-off is 09:30 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Shimizu S-pulse: they come in on the back of a defeat, following one win, one draw and two defeats before that. That is one win, one draw and three defeats from the last five, worth 4 points. It leaves them three games without a win. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (20 scored and 25 conceded in 20 matches, 1.0 and 1.25 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 27.3 out of 100, and they sit 17th on a goal difference of -4.
Avispa Fukuoka: they come in on the back of a draw, following one draw and three defeats before that. That is no wins, two draws and three defeats from the last five, worth 2 points. It leaves them winless in five. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (21 scored and 26 conceded in 18 matches, 1.17 and 1.44 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 38.1 out of 100, and they sit 16th on a goal difference of -1.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Shimizu S-pulse | Avispa Fukuoka |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 17th | 16th |
| Goal difference | -4 | -1 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LDLWL | DLLDL |
| Points from last 5 | 4 | 2 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 4 / 7 | 6 / 9 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 0 | 1 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 20 | 18 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 1.0 / 1.25 | 1.17 / 1.44 |
| Points per game (2026) | 1.05 | 1.17 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 27.3 | 38.1 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 75% | 4% |
| Head-to-head wins (last 2) | 0 | 0 |
What stands out
- Head-to-head balance (last 2): Shimizu S-pulse none wins, Avispa Fukuoka none wins, two draws — a historically tight match-up.
- Most recent meeting: Shimizu S-pulse 1-1 Avispa Fukuoka on 10 May 2026.
- Head-to-head goals: 2.0 per game across those meetings, with both teams scoring in all of them — a fixture that has historically stayed tight.
- Pre-match form ratings: Shimizu S-pulse 27.3 versus Avispa Fukuoka 38.1, a gap of 10.8, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.67, over 2.5 goals at 22% and both teams to score at 45%.
- First goal: Leans Shimizu S-pulse's way at 75%.
The call
The model leans firmly towards Shimizu S-pulse at 75%, a gap of 53 percentage points to the next outcome. The goals line points to under 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Shimizu S-pulse's way, especially at IAI Stadium Nihondaira.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Shimizu S-pulse or Avispa Fukuoka?
Shimizu S-pulse, with an implied win probability of roughly 75%. The full split is 75% Shimizu S-pulse, 22% the draw and 4% Avispa Fukuoka.
When and where is Shimizu S-pulse vs Avispa Fukuoka being played?
12 September 2026 at IAI Stadium Nihondaira, Shizuoka, kick-off 09:30 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Shimizu S-pulse and Avispa Fukuoka?
Shimizu S-pulse 1-1 Avispa Fukuoka on 10 May 2026.
What is the recent form of Shimizu S-pulse and Avispa Fukuoka?
Shimizu S-pulse have taken 4 points from their last five (LDLWL), Avispa Fukuoka 2 from theirs (DLLDL). Most recently Shimizu S-pulse took a 1-3 defeat away at Kawasaki Frontale and Avispa Fukuoka a 1-1 draw at home to Mito Hollyhock.
How many goals are expected in Shimizu S-pulse vs Avispa Fukuoka?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.67 — 1.33 for Shimizu S-pulse and 1.33 for Avispa Fukuoka. It rates over 2.5 goals at 22%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 45%, so its call is no.