Machida Zelvia vs Kashiwa Reysol: the numbers, the form and our prediction
Our model makes Machida Zelvia the pick at 52% for Machida Zelvia vs Kashiwa Reysol. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Kashiwa Reysol travel to Machida Zelvia on 20 September 2026 at Machida GION Stadium, Machida. Machida Zelvia are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 52%. This matchday 8 fixture in J1 League is listed as Machida Zelvia - Kashiwa Reysol. Kick-off is 08:00 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Machida Zelvia: they come in on the back of a draw, following three wins and one draw before that. That is three wins, two draws and no defeats from the last five, worth 11 points. It leaves them unbeaten in five. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (27 scored and 22 conceded in 20 matches, 1.35 and 1.1 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 64.9 out of 100, and they sit 1st on a goal difference of +13.
Kashiwa Reysol: they come in on the back of a win, following two wins and two defeats before that. That is three wins, no draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 9 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (26 scored and 25 conceded in 19 matches, 1.37 and 1.32 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 55.8 out of 100, and they sit 3rd on a goal difference of +3.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Machida Zelvia | Kashiwa Reysol |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 1st | 3rd |
| Goal difference | +13 | +3 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | DWWDW | WLLWW |
| Points from last 5 | 11 | 9 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 10 / 4 | 6 / 7 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 1 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 20 | 19 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 1.35 / 1.1 | 1.37 / 1.32 |
| Points per game (2026) | 1.8 | 1.16 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 64.9 | 55.8 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 52% | 9% |
| Head-to-head wins (last 2) | 2 | 0 |
Key match insights
- Head-to-head balance (last 2): Machida Zelvia two wins, Kashiwa Reysol none wins, none draws — an edge to Machida Zelvia.
- Most recent meeting: Machida Zelvia 1-0 Kashiwa Reysol on 11 April 2026.
- Head-to-head goals: 1.0 per game across those meetings, with both teams scoring in none of the two — a fixture that has historically stayed tight.
- Pre-match form ratings: Machida Zelvia 64.9 versus Kashiwa Reysol 55.8, a gap of 9.2, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.00, over 2.5 goals at 41% and both teams to score at 40%.
- First goal: Leans Machida Zelvia's way at 68%.
The call
The model tilts to Machida Zelvia at 52%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. The goals line points to under 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Machida Zelvia's way, especially at Machida GION Stadium.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Machida Zelvia or Kashiwa Reysol?
Machida Zelvia, with an implied win probability of roughly 52%. The full split is 52% Machida Zelvia, 39% the draw and 9% Kashiwa Reysol.
When and where is Machida Zelvia vs Kashiwa Reysol being played?
20 September 2026 at Machida GION Stadium, Machida, kick-off 08:00 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Machida Zelvia and Kashiwa Reysol?
Machida Zelvia 1-0 Kashiwa Reysol on 11 April 2026.
What is the recent form of Machida Zelvia and Kashiwa Reysol?
Machida Zelvia have taken 11 points from their last five (DWWDW), Kashiwa Reysol 9 from theirs (WLLWW). Most recently Machida Zelvia took a 1-1 draw at home to Yokohama F. Marinos and Kashiwa Reysol a 3-2 win away at Kyoto Sanga.
How many goals are expected in Machida Zelvia vs Kashiwa Reysol?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.00 — 1.00 for Machida Zelvia and 1.00 for Kashiwa Reysol. It rates over 2.5 goals at 41%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 40%, so its call is no.