Kashima vs Kashiwa Reysol: the numbers, the form and our prediction
Our model makes Kashima the pick at 65% for Kashima vs Kashiwa Reysol. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Kashiwa Reysol travel to Kashima on 24 October 2026 at Mercari Stadium, Kashima. Kashima are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 65%. This matchday 12 fixture in J1 League is listed as Kashima - Kashiwa Reysol. Kick-off is 06:00 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Kashima: they come in on the back of a draw, following four wins before that. That is four wins, one draw and no defeats from the last five, worth 13 points. It leaves them unbeaten in five. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (38 scored and 15 conceded in 21 matches, 1.81 and 0.71 per game) points to a side doing the job at both ends. That is reflected in a form rating of 52.9 out of 100, and they sit 6th on a goal difference of +5.
Kashiwa Reysol: they come in on the back of a draw, following three wins and one defeat before that. That is three wins, one draw and one defeat from the last five, worth 10 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (26 scored and 25 conceded in 19 matches, 1.37 and 1.32 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 59.6 out of 100, and they sit 5th on a goal difference of +5.
Side by side
| Statistic | Kashima | Kashiwa Reysol |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 6th | 5th |
| Goal difference | +5 | +5 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | DWWWW | DLWWW |
| Points from last 5 | 13 | 10 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 10 / 3 | 15 / 10 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 3 | 1 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 21 | 19 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 1.81 / 0.71 | 1.37 / 1.32 |
| Points per game (2026) | 2.33 | 1.16 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 52.9 | 59.6 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 65% | 16% |
| Head-to-head wins (last 2) | 2 | 0 |
Key match insights
- Head-to-head balance (last 2): Kashima two wins, Kashiwa Reysol none wins, none draws — an edge to Kashima.
- Most recent meeting: Kashiwa Reysol 0-1 Kashima on 24 April 2026.
- Head-to-head goals: 1.5 per game across those meetings, with both teams scoring in none of the two — a fixture that has historically stayed tight.
- Pre-match form ratings: Kashima 52.9 versus Kashiwa Reysol 59.6, a gap of 6.7, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 3.60, over 2.5 goals at 60% and both teams to score at 55%.
- First goal: Leans Kashima's way at 66%.
The call
The model leans firmly towards Kashima at 65%, a gap of 45 percentage points to the next outcome. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Kashima's way, especially at Mercari Stadium.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Kashima or Kashiwa Reysol?
Kashima, with an implied win probability of roughly 65%. The full split is 65% Kashima, 20% the draw and 16% Kashiwa Reysol.
When and where is Kashima vs Kashiwa Reysol being played?
24 October 2026 at Mercari Stadium, Kashima, kick-off 06:00 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Kashima and Kashiwa Reysol?
Kashiwa Reysol 0-1 Kashima on 24 April 2026.
What is the recent form of Kashima and Kashiwa Reysol?
Kashima have taken 13 points from their last five (DWWWW), Kashiwa Reysol 10 from theirs (DLWWW). Most recently Kashima took a 2-2 draw away at Kyoto Sanga and Kashiwa Reysol a 0-0 draw away at FC Tokyo.
How many goals are expected in Kashima vs Kashiwa Reysol?
The model's combined scoring line is 3.60 — 2.40 for Kashima and 1.20 for Kashiwa Reysol. It rates over 2.5 goals at 60%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 55%, so its call is yes.