Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Shimizu S-pulse: match summary, form and prediction
Our model makes Sanfrecce Hiroshima the pick at 75% for Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Shimizu S-pulse. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Sanfrecce Hiroshima host Shimizu S-pulse on 24 October 2026 at Edion Peace Wing Hiroshima, Hiroshima. Sanfrecce Hiroshima are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 75%. This matchday 12 fixture in J1 League is listed as Sanfrecce Hiroshima - Shimizu S-pulse. Kick-off is 05:00 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Sanfrecce Hiroshima: they come in on the back of a defeat, following four wins before that. That is four wins, no draws and one defeat from the last five, worth 12 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (30 scored and 21 conceded in 19 matches, 1.58 and 1.11 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 68.8 out of 100, and they sit 3rd on a goal difference of +15.
Shimizu S-pulse: they come in on the back of a defeat, following two wins, one draw and one defeat before that. That is two wins, one draw and two defeats from the last five, worth 7 points. It leaves them three games without a win. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (20 scored and 25 conceded in 20 matches, 1.0 and 1.25 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 56.8 out of 100, and they sit 11th on a goal difference of -6.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | Shimizu S-pulse |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 3rd | 11th |
| Goal difference | +15 | -6 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LWWWW | LDLWW |
| Points from last 5 | 12 | 7 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 10 / 4 | 7 / 11 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 4 | 0 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 19 | 20 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 1.58 / 1.11 | 1.0 / 1.25 |
| Points per game (2026) | 1.63 | 1.05 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 68.8 | 56.8 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 75% | 9% |
| Head-to-head wins (last 2) | 0 | 1 |
Key match insights
- Head-to-head balance (last 2): Sanfrecce Hiroshima none wins, Shimizu S-pulse one win, one draw — a historically tight match-up.
- Most recent meeting: Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1-1 Shimizu S-pulse on 11 April 2026.
- Head-to-head goals: 3.0 per game across those meetings, with both teams scoring in all of them — a fixture that has tended to open up.
- Pre-match form ratings: Sanfrecce Hiroshima 68.8 versus Shimizu S-pulse 56.8, a gap of 11.9, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Table gap: Eight places separate them, the kind of margin that usually shows in the first twenty minutes.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 4.60, over 2.5 goals at 60% and both teams to score at 53%.
- First goal: Leans Sanfrecce Hiroshima's way at 73%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model leans firmly towards Sanfrecce Hiroshima at 75%, a gap of 60 percentage points to the next outcome. Sanfrecce Hiroshima's form line and home advantage back it and the goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Sanfrecce Hiroshima's way, especially at Edion Peace Wing Hiroshima.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Sanfrecce Hiroshima or Shimizu S-pulse?
Sanfrecce Hiroshima, with an implied win probability of roughly 75%. The full split is 75% Sanfrecce Hiroshima, 16% the draw and 9% Shimizu S-pulse.
When and where is Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Shimizu S-pulse being played?
24 October 2026 at Edion Peace Wing Hiroshima, Hiroshima, kick-off 05:00 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Sanfrecce Hiroshima and Shimizu S-pulse?
Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1-1 Shimizu S-pulse on 11 April 2026.
What is the recent form of Sanfrecce Hiroshima and Shimizu S-pulse?
Sanfrecce Hiroshima have taken 12 points from their last five (LWWWW), Shimizu S-pulse 7 from theirs (LDLWW). Most recently Sanfrecce Hiroshima took a 0-4 defeat away at V-varen Nagasaki and Shimizu S-pulse a 0-5 defeat at home to Machida Zelvia.
How many goals are expected in Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Shimizu S-pulse?
The model's combined scoring line is 4.60 — 3.40 for Sanfrecce Hiroshima and 1.20 for Shimizu S-pulse. It rates over 2.5 goals at 60%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 53%, so its call is yes.