Tokyo Verdy vs Avispa Fukuoka: match summary, form and prediction
Our model makes Avispa Fukuoka the pick at 40% for Tokyo Verdy vs Avispa Fukuoka. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Tokyo Verdy face Avispa Fukuoka on 24 October 2026 at Ajinomoto Stadium, Chofu. Avispa Fukuoka are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 40%. This matchday 12 fixture in J1 League is listed as Tokyo Verdy - Avispa Fukuoka. Kick-off is 06:00 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Tokyo Verdy: they come in on the back of a draw, following one draw and three defeats before that. That is no wins, two draws and three defeats from the last five, worth 2 points. It leaves them winless in five. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (17 scored and 28 conceded in 18 matches, 0.94 and 1.56 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 28.2 out of 100, and they sit 20th on a goal difference of -14.
Avispa Fukuoka: they come in on three defeats in a row, following one win and one defeat before that. That is one win, no draws and four defeats from the last five, worth 3 points. It leaves them three games without a win. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (21 scored and 26 conceded in 18 matches, 1.17 and 1.44 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 33.5 out of 100, and they sit 18th on a goal difference of -6.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Tokyo Verdy | Avispa Fukuoka |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 20th | 18th |
| Goal difference | -14 | -6 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | DLLDL | LLLWL |
| Points from last 5 | 2 | 3 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 3 / 10 | 4 / 9 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 0 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 18 | 18 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 0.94 / 1.56 | 1.17 / 1.44 |
| Points per game (2026) | 1.11 | 1.17 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 28.2 | 33.5 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 30% | 40% |
Key match insights
- Pre-match form ratings: Tokyo Verdy 28.2 versus Avispa Fukuoka 33.5, a gap of 5.3, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 0.80, over 2.5 goals at 46% and both teams to score at 53%.
- First goal: Leans Avispa Fukuoka's way at 48%.
The call
The model edges towards Avispa Fukuoka at 40%, and 'edges' is doing real work in that sentence. The goals line points to under 2.5 goals.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Tokyo Verdy or Avispa Fukuoka?
Avispa Fukuoka, with an implied win probability of roughly 40%. The full split is 30% Tokyo Verdy, 30% the draw and 40% Avispa Fukuoka.
When and where is Tokyo Verdy vs Avispa Fukuoka being played?
24 October 2026 at Ajinomoto Stadium, Chofu, kick-off 06:00 UTC.
Have Tokyo Verdy and Avispa Fukuoka met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Tokyo Verdy and Avispa Fukuoka?
Tokyo Verdy have taken 2 points from their last five (DLLDL), Avispa Fukuoka 3 from theirs (LLLWL). Most recently Tokyo Verdy took a 2-2 draw away at Yokohama F. Marinos and Avispa Fukuoka a 1-2 defeat at home to Gamba Osaka.
How many goals are expected in Tokyo Verdy vs Avispa Fukuoka?
The model's combined scoring line is 0.80 — 0.20 for Tokyo Verdy and 0.60 for Avispa Fukuoka. It rates over 2.5 goals at 46%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 53%, so its call is yes.