JEF United Chiba vs Avispa Fukuoka: match summary, form and prediction
There is barely anything between JEF United Chiba and Avispa Fukuoka on our numbers. Form trajectory, a side-by-side comparison, the head-to-head record and where the model does — and does not — commit.
The fixture at a glance
JEF United Chiba host Avispa Fukuoka on 1 November 2026 at Fukuda Denshi Arena, Chiba. JEF United Chiba are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 37%. This matchday 13 fixture in J1 League is listed as JEF United Chiba - Avispa Fukuoka. Kick-off is 05:00 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
JEF United Chiba: they come in on the back of a draw, following two draws and two defeats before that. That is no wins, three draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 3 points. It leaves them winless in five. Their 2027-season record in our dataset (6 scored and 8 conceded in six matches, 1.0 and 1.33 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 32.0 out of 100, and they sit 20th on a goal difference of -12.
Avispa Fukuoka: they come in on four defeats in a row, following one win before that. That is one win, no draws and four defeats from the last five, worth 3 points. It leaves them winless in four. Their 2027-season record in our dataset (4 scored and 12 conceded in six matches, 0.67 and 2.0 per game) underlines issues at both ends. That is reflected in a form rating of 33.0 out of 100, and they sit 19th on a goal difference of -8.
Comparison data
| Statistic | JEF United Chiba | Avispa Fukuoka |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 20th | 19th |
| Goal difference | -12 | -8 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | DLDDL | LLLLW |
| Points from last 5 | 3 | 3 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 5 / 7 | 5 / 11 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 0 |
| Matches in our dataset (2027 season) | 6 | 6 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2027) | 1.0 / 1.33 | 0.67 / 2.0 |
| Points per game (2027) | 1.0 | 0.17 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 32.0 | 33.0 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 37% | 34% |
| Head-to-head wins (last 2) | 0 | 1 |
Key match insights
- Head-to-head balance (last 2): JEF United Chiba none wins, Avispa Fukuoka one win, one draw — a historically tight match-up.
- Most recent meeting: JEF United Chiba 1-2 Avispa Fukuoka on 06 June 2026.
- Head-to-head goals: 3.5 per game across those meetings, with both teams scoring in all of them — a fixture that has tended to open up.
- Pre-match form ratings: JEF United Chiba 32.0 versus Avispa Fukuoka 33.0, a gap of 1.0, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.00, over 2.5 goals at 52% and both teams to score at 57%.
- First goal: Leans JEF United Chiba's way at 48%.
The call
The model does not commit. JEF United Chiba is the nominal pick at 37%, but the three results sit close to even. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts JEF United Chiba's way, especially at Fukuda Denshi Arena.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: JEF United Chiba or Avispa Fukuoka?
JEF United Chiba, with an implied win probability of roughly 37%. The full split is 37% JEF United Chiba, 29% the draw and 34% Avispa Fukuoka.
When and where is JEF United Chiba vs Avispa Fukuoka being played?
1 November 2026 at Fukuda Denshi Arena, Chiba, kick-off 05:00 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between JEF United Chiba and Avispa Fukuoka?
JEF United Chiba 1-2 Avispa Fukuoka on 06 June 2026.
What is the recent form of JEF United Chiba and Avispa Fukuoka?
JEF United Chiba have taken 3 points from their last five (DLDDL), Avispa Fukuoka 3 from theirs (LLLLW). Most recently JEF United Chiba took a 2-2 draw away at Cerezo Osaka and Avispa Fukuoka a 1-3 defeat away at Tokyo Verdy.
How many goals are expected in JEF United Chiba vs Avispa Fukuoka?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.00 — 1.20 for JEF United Chiba and 0.80 for Avispa Fukuoka. It rates over 2.5 goals at 52%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 57%, so its call is yes.