Kashima vs Cerezo Osaka: the numbers, the form and our prediction
Our model makes Kashima the pick at 60% for Kashima vs Cerezo Osaka. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Kashima host Cerezo Osaka on 31 October 2026 at Mercari Stadium, Kashima. Kashima are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 60%. This matchday 13 fixture in J1 League is listed as Kashima - Cerezo Osaka. Kick-off is 06:00 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Kashima: they come in on the back of a win, following two wins, one draw and one defeat before that. That is three wins, one draw and one defeat from the last five, worth 10 points. Their 2027-season record in our dataset (13 scored and 13 conceded in seven matches, 1.86 and 1.86 per game) points to strong attacking output with occasional defensive lapses. That is reflected in a form rating of 52.7 out of 100, and they sit 8th on a goal difference of +4.
Cerezo Osaka: they come in on the back of a win, following one win, two draws and one defeat before that. That is two wins, two draws and one defeat from the last five, worth 8 points. It leaves them unbeaten in three. Their 2027-season record in our dataset (9 scored and 14 conceded in seven matches, 1.29 and 2.0 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 36.6 out of 100, and they sit 12th on a goal difference of -7.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Kashima | Cerezo Osaka |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 8th | 12th |
| Goal difference | +4 | -7 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WLDWW | WDDLW |
| Points from last 5 | 10 | 8 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 10 / 5 | 11 / 10 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 3 | 0 |
| Matches in our dataset (2027 season) | 7 | 7 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2027) | 1.86 / 1.86 | 1.29 / 2.0 |
| Points per game (2027) | 1.29 | 1.14 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 52.7 | 36.6 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 60% | 19% |
Key match insights
- Pre-match form ratings: Kashima 52.7 versus Cerezo Osaka 36.6, a gap of 16.1, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 4.40, over 2.5 goals at 59% and both teams to score at 54%.
- First goal: Leans Kashima's way at 63%.
The call
The model leans firmly towards Kashima at 60%, a gap of 38 percentage points to the next outcome. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Kashima's way, especially at Mercari Stadium.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Kashima or Cerezo Osaka?
Kashima, with an implied win probability of roughly 60%. The full split is 60% Kashima, 21% the draw and 19% Cerezo Osaka.
When and where is Kashima vs Cerezo Osaka being played?
31 October 2026 at Mercari Stadium, Kashima, kick-off 06:00 UTC.
Have Kashima and Cerezo Osaka met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Kashima and Cerezo Osaka?
Kashima have taken 10 points from their last five (WLDWW), Cerezo Osaka 8 from theirs (WDDLW). Most recently Kashima took a 3-0 win at home to Pohang Steelers and Cerezo Osaka a 3-1 win away at Mito Hollyhock.
How many goals are expected in Kashima vs Cerezo Osaka?
The model's combined scoring line is 4.40 — 3.00 for Kashima and 1.40 for Cerezo Osaka. It rates over 2.5 goals at 59%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 54%, so its call is yes.