Mito Hollyhock vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima: the numbers, the form and our prediction
Our model makes Sanfrecce Hiroshima the pick at 69% for Mito Hollyhock vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Mito Hollyhock face Sanfrecce Hiroshima on 31 October 2026 at K's Denki Stadium Mito, Mito. Sanfrecce Hiroshima are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 69%. This matchday 13 fixture in J1 League is listed as Mito Hollyhock - Sanfrecce Hiroshima. Kick-off is 05:00 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Mito Hollyhock: they come in on four defeats in a row, following one win before that. That is one win, no draws and four defeats from the last five, worth 3 points. It leaves them winless in four. Their 2027-season record in our dataset (6 scored and 13 conceded in six matches, 1.0 and 2.17 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 22.5 out of 100, and they sit 17th on a goal difference of -10.
Sanfrecce Hiroshima: they come in on the back of a defeat, following three wins and one defeat before that. That is three wins, no draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 9 points. Their 2027-season record in our dataset (21 scored and 4 conceded in six matches, 3.5 and 0.67 per game) points to a side doing the job at both ends. That is reflected in a form rating of 69.8 out of 100, and they sit 3rd on a goal difference of +19.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Mito Hollyhock | Sanfrecce Hiroshima |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 17th | 3rd |
| Goal difference | -10 | +19 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LLLLW | LWLWW |
| Points from last 5 | 3 | 9 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 2 / 12 | 11 / 8 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 3 |
| Matches in our dataset (2027 season) | 6 | 6 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2027) | 1.0 / 2.17 | 3.5 / 0.67 |
| Points per game (2027) | 0.67 | 2.5 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 22.5 | 69.8 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 12% | 69% |
Key match insights
- Pre-match form ratings: Mito Hollyhock 22.5 versus Sanfrecce Hiroshima 69.8, a gap of 47.2, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Table gap: 14 places separate them, the kind of margin that usually shows in the first twenty minutes.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 4.60, over 2.5 goals at 53% and both teams to score at 60%.
- First goal: Leans Sanfrecce Hiroshima's way at 73%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model leans firmly towards Sanfrecce Hiroshima at 69%, a gap of 51 percentage points to the next outcome. Sanfrecce Hiroshima's stronger recent metrics back it and the goals line points to over 2.5 goals.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Mito Hollyhock or Sanfrecce Hiroshima?
Sanfrecce Hiroshima, with an implied win probability of roughly 69%. The full split is 12% Mito Hollyhock, 18% the draw and 69% Sanfrecce Hiroshima.
When and where is Mito Hollyhock vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima being played?
31 October 2026 at K's Denki Stadium Mito, Mito, kick-off 05:00 UTC.
Have Mito Hollyhock and Sanfrecce Hiroshima met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Mito Hollyhock and Sanfrecce Hiroshima?
Mito Hollyhock have taken 3 points from their last five (LLLLW), Sanfrecce Hiroshima 9 from theirs (LWLWW). Most recently Mito Hollyhock took a 1-3 defeat at home to Cerezo Osaka and Sanfrecce Hiroshima a 3-4 defeat away at Yokohama F. Marinos.
How many goals are expected in Mito Hollyhock vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima?
The model's combined scoring line is 4.60 — 1.00 for Mito Hollyhock and 3.60 for Sanfrecce Hiroshima. It rates over 2.5 goals at 53%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 60%, so its call is yes.