V-varen Nagasaki vs Tokyo Verdy match summary and prediction — J1 League
Our model makes V-varen Nagasaki the pick at 49% for V-varen Nagasaki vs Tokyo Verdy. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Tokyo Verdy travel to V-varen Nagasaki on 1 November 2026 at Peace Stadium connected by SoftBank, Nagasaki. V-varen Nagasaki are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 49%. This matchday 13 fixture in J1 League is listed as V-varen Nagasaki - Tokyo Verdy. Kick-off is 05:00 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
V-varen Nagasaki: they come in on the back of a defeat, following one win, one draw and two defeats before that. That is one win, one draw and three defeats from the last five, worth 4 points. Their 2027-season record in our dataset (7 scored and 9 conceded in six matches, 1.17 and 1.5 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 40.7 out of 100, and they sit 14th on a goal difference of -4.
Tokyo Verdy: they come in on the back of a win, following two draws and two defeats before that. That is one win, two draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 5 points. Their 2027-season record in our dataset (5 scored and 11 conceded in seven matches, 0.71 and 1.57 per game) underlines how hard they have found it to score. That is reflected in a form rating of 35.3 out of 100, and they sit 18th on a goal difference of -12.
Side by side
| Statistic | V-varen Nagasaki | Tokyo Verdy |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 14th | 18th |
| Goal difference | -4 | -12 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LWLDL | WDLLD |
| Points from last 5 | 4 | 5 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 6 / 6 | 5 / 9 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 1 |
| Matches in our dataset (2027 season) | 6 | 7 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2027) | 1.17 / 1.5 | 0.71 / 1.57 |
| Points per game (2027) | 1.17 | 0.86 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 40.7 | 35.3 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 49% | 23% |
Key match insights
- Pre-match form ratings: V-varen Nagasaki 40.7 versus Tokyo Verdy 35.3, a gap of 5.3, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 1.80, over 2.5 goals at 49% and both teams to score at 54%.
- First goal: Leans V-varen Nagasaki's way at 53%.
The call
The model tilts to V-varen Nagasaki at 49%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. Tokyo Verdy's stronger recent metrics back it and the goals line points to under 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts V-varen Nagasaki's way, especially at Peace Stadium connected by SoftBank.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: V-varen Nagasaki or Tokyo Verdy?
V-varen Nagasaki, with an implied win probability of roughly 49%. The full split is 49% V-varen Nagasaki, 27% the draw and 23% Tokyo Verdy.
When and where is V-varen Nagasaki vs Tokyo Verdy being played?
1 November 2026 at Peace Stadium connected by SoftBank, Nagasaki, kick-off 05:00 UTC.
Have V-varen Nagasaki and Tokyo Verdy met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of V-varen Nagasaki and Tokyo Verdy?
V-varen Nagasaki have taken 4 points from their last five (LWLDL), Tokyo Verdy 5 from theirs (WDLLD). Most recently V-varen Nagasaki took a 0-1 defeat away at Urawa and Tokyo Verdy a 3-1 win at home to Avispa Fukuoka.
How many goals are expected in V-varen Nagasaki vs Tokyo Verdy?
The model's combined scoring line is 1.80 — 1.00 for V-varen Nagasaki and 0.80 for Tokyo Verdy. It rates over 2.5 goals at 49%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 54%, so its call is yes.