Avispa Fukuoka vs V-varen Nagasaki: the numbers, the form and our prediction
There is barely anything between Avispa Fukuoka and V-varen Nagasaki on our numbers. Form trajectory, a side-by-side comparison, the head-to-head record and where the model does — and does not — commit.
The fixture at a glance
Avispa Fukuoka face V-varen Nagasaki on 7 November 2026 at Best Denki Stadium, Fukuoka. Avispa Fukuoka are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 38%. This matchday 14 fixture in J1 League is listed as Avispa Fukuoka - V-varen Nagasaki. Kick-off is 06:00 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Avispa Fukuoka: they come in on five defeats in a row. That is no wins, no draws and five defeats from the last five, worth 0 points. It leaves them winless in five. Their 2027-season record in our dataset (4 scored and 15 conceded in seven matches, 0.57 and 2.14 per game) underlines issues at both ends. That is reflected in a form rating of 32.2 out of 100, and they sit 20th on a goal difference of -11.
V-varen Nagasaki: they come in on back-to-back defeats, following one win, one draw and one defeat before that. That is one win, one draw and three defeats from the last five, worth 4 points. Their 2027-season record in our dataset (8 scored and 11 conceded in seven matches, 1.14 and 1.57 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 37.1 out of 100, and they sit 15th on a goal difference of -5.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Avispa Fukuoka | V-varen Nagasaki |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 20th | 15th |
| Goal difference | -11 | -5 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LLLLL | LLWLD |
| Points from last 5 | 0 | 4 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 3 / 13 | 6 / 6 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 0 | 1 |
| Matches in our dataset (2027 season) | 7 | 7 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2027) | 0.57 / 2.14 | 1.14 / 1.57 |
| Points per game (2027) | 0.14 | 1.0 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 32.2 | 37.1 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 38% | 34% |
| Head-to-head wins (last 2) | 1 | 1 |
What stands out
- Head-to-head balance (last 2): Avispa Fukuoka one win, V-varen Nagasaki one win, none draws — a historically tight match-up.
- Most recent meeting: Avispa Fukuoka 1-0 V-varen Nagasaki on 11 April 2026.
- Head-to-head goals: 1.0 per game across those meetings, with both teams scoring in none of the two — a fixture that has historically stayed tight.
- Pre-match form ratings: Avispa Fukuoka 32.2 versus V-varen Nagasaki 37.1, a gap of 4.8, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 1.20, over 2.5 goals at 45% and both teams to score at 50%.
- First goal: Leans Avispa Fukuoka's way at 48%.
The call
The model does not commit. Avispa Fukuoka is the nominal pick at 38%, but the three results sit close to even. The goals line points to under 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Avispa Fukuoka's way, especially at Best Denki Stadium.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Avispa Fukuoka or V-varen Nagasaki?
Avispa Fukuoka, with an implied win probability of roughly 38%. The full split is 38% Avispa Fukuoka, 28% the draw and 34% V-varen Nagasaki.
When and where is Avispa Fukuoka vs V-varen Nagasaki being played?
7 November 2026 at Best Denki Stadium, Fukuoka, kick-off 06:00 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Avispa Fukuoka and V-varen Nagasaki?
Avispa Fukuoka 1-0 V-varen Nagasaki on 11 April 2026.
What is the recent form of Avispa Fukuoka and V-varen Nagasaki?
Avispa Fukuoka have taken 0 points from their last five (LLLLL), V-varen Nagasaki 4 from theirs (LLWLD). Most recently Avispa Fukuoka took a 0-3 defeat away at JEF United Chiba and V-varen Nagasaki a 1-2 defeat at home to Tokyo Verdy.
How many goals are expected in Avispa Fukuoka vs V-varen Nagasaki?
The model's combined scoring line is 1.20 — 0.40 for Avispa Fukuoka and 0.80 for V-varen Nagasaki. It rates over 2.5 goals at 45%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 50%, so its call is yes.