FC Tokyo vs Kashima: the numbers, the form and our prediction
Our model makes FC Tokyo the pick at 50% for FC Tokyo vs Kashima. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Kashima travel to FC Tokyo on 7 November 2026 at Ajinomoto Stadium, Tokyo. FC Tokyo are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 50%. This matchday 14 fixture in J1 League is listed as FC Tokyo - Kashima. Kick-off is 06:00 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
FC Tokyo: they come in on a two-match winning sequence, following one win, one draw and one defeat before that. That is three wins, one draw and one defeat from the last five, worth 10 points. It leaves them unbeaten in four. Their 2027-season record in our dataset (20 scored and 6 conceded in seven matches, 2.86 and 0.86 per game) points to a side doing the job at both ends. That is reflected in a form rating of 74.1 out of 100, and they sit 1st on a goal difference of +23.
Kashima: they come in on a two-match winning sequence, following one win, one draw and one defeat before that. That is three wins, one draw and one defeat from the last five, worth 10 points. Their 2027-season record in our dataset (17 scored and 14 conceded in eight matches, 2.12 and 1.75 per game) points to strong attacking output with occasional defensive lapses. That is reflected in a form rating of 60.1 out of 100, and they sit 6th on a goal difference of +7.
Side by side
| Statistic | FC Tokyo | Kashima |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 1st | 6th |
| Goal difference | +23 | +7 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WWDWL | WWLDW |
| Points from last 5 | 10 | 10 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 14 / 1 | 13 / 6 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 4 | 2 |
| Matches in our dataset (2027 season) | 7 | 8 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2027) | 2.86 / 0.86 | 2.12 / 1.75 |
| Points per game (2027) | 2.29 | 1.5 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 74.1 | 60.1 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 50% | 30% |
| Head-to-head wins (last 2) | 0 | 1 |
Key match insights
- Head-to-head balance (last 2): FC Tokyo none wins, Kashima one win, one draw — a historically tight match-up.
- Most recent meeting: Kashima 1-0 FC Tokyo on 23 May 2026.
- Head-to-head goals: 1.5 per game across those meetings, with both teams scoring in one of the two — a fixture that has historically stayed tight.
- Pre-match form ratings: FC Tokyo 74.1 versus Kashima 60.1, a gap of 14.0, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 7.20, over 2.5 goals at 65% and both teams to score at 59%.
- First goal: Leans FC Tokyo's way at 49%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model tilts to FC Tokyo at 50%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts FC Tokyo's way, especially at Ajinomoto Stadium.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: FC Tokyo or Kashima?
FC Tokyo, with an implied win probability of roughly 50%. The full split is 50% FC Tokyo, 21% the draw and 30% Kashima.
When and where is FC Tokyo vs Kashima being played?
7 November 2026 at Ajinomoto Stadium, Tokyo, kick-off 06:00 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between FC Tokyo and Kashima?
Kashima 1-0 FC Tokyo on 23 May 2026.
What is the recent form of FC Tokyo and Kashima?
FC Tokyo have taken 10 points from their last five (WWDWL), Kashima 10 from theirs (WWLDW). Most recently FC Tokyo took a 4-0 win away at Fagiano Okayama and Kashima a 4-1 win at home to Cerezo Osaka.
How many goals are expected in FC Tokyo vs Kashima?
The model's combined scoring line is 7.20 — 3.60 for FC Tokyo and 3.60 for Kashima. It rates over 2.5 goals at 65%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 59%, so its call is yes.