Machida Zelvia vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima — form, head-to-head and match prediction
There is barely anything between Machida Zelvia and Sanfrecce Hiroshima on our numbers. Form trajectory, a side-by-side comparison, the head-to-head record and where the model does — and does not — commit.
Match summary
Machida Zelvia host Sanfrecce Hiroshima on 8 November 2026 at Machida GION Stadium, Machida. Machida Zelvia are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 39%. This matchday 14 fixture in J1 League is listed as Machida Zelvia - Sanfrecce Hiroshima. Kick-off is 05:00 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Machida Zelvia: they come in on the back of a draw, following three wins and one draw before that. That is three wins, two draws and no defeats from the last five, worth 11 points. It leaves them unbeaten in five. Their 2027-season record in our dataset (14 scored and 4 conceded in seven matches, 2.0 and 0.57 per game) points to a side doing the job at both ends. That is reflected in a form rating of 66.7 out of 100, and they sit 3rd on a goal difference of +20.
Sanfrecce Hiroshima: they come in on the back of a win, following two wins and two defeats before that. That is three wins, no draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 9 points. Their 2027-season record in our dataset (24 scored and 4 conceded in seven matches, 3.43 and 0.57 per game) points to a side doing the job at both ends. That is reflected in a form rating of 70.5 out of 100, and they sit 2nd on a goal difference of +22.
Side by side
| Statistic | Machida Zelvia | Sanfrecce Hiroshima |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 3rd | 2nd |
| Goal difference | +20 | +22 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | DWDWW | WLWLW |
| Points from last 5 | 11 | 9 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 9 / 0 | 13 / 8 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 5 | 3 |
| Matches in our dataset (2027 season) | 7 | 7 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2027) | 2.0 / 0.57 | 3.43 / 0.57 |
| Points per game (2027) | 2.14 | 2.57 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 66.7 | 70.5 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 39% | 37% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: Machida Zelvia 66.7 versus Sanfrecce Hiroshima 70.5, a gap of 3.8, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 4.60, over 2.5 goals at 60% and both teams to score at 60%.
- First goal: Leans Sanfrecce Hiroshima's way at 52%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model does not commit. Machida Zelvia is the nominal pick at 39%, but the three results sit close to even. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Machida Zelvia's way, especially at Machida GION Stadium.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Machida Zelvia or Sanfrecce Hiroshima?
Machida Zelvia, with an implied win probability of roughly 39%. The full split is 39% Machida Zelvia, 24% the draw and 37% Sanfrecce Hiroshima.
When and where is Machida Zelvia vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima being played?
8 November 2026 at Machida GION Stadium, Machida, kick-off 05:00 UTC.
Have Machida Zelvia and Sanfrecce Hiroshima met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Machida Zelvia and Sanfrecce Hiroshima?
Machida Zelvia have taken 11 points from their last five (DWDWW), Sanfrecce Hiroshima 9 from theirs (WLWLW). Most recently Machida Zelvia took a 0-0 draw at home to Gamba Osaka and Sanfrecce Hiroshima a 3-0 win away at Mito Hollyhock.
How many goals are expected in Machida Zelvia vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima?
The model's combined scoring line is 4.60 — 1.00 for Machida Zelvia and 3.60 for Sanfrecce Hiroshima. It rates over 2.5 goals at 60%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 60%, so its call is yes.