Nagoya Grampus vs Kyoto Sanga: the numbers, the form and our prediction
Our model makes Nagoya Grampus the pick at 49% for Nagoya Grampus vs Kyoto Sanga. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Nagoya Grampus host Kyoto Sanga on 7 November 2026 at Toyota Stadium, Toyota City. Nagoya Grampus are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 49%. This matchday 14 fixture in J1 League is listed as Nagoya Grampus - Kyoto Sanga. Kick-off is 05:00 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Nagoya Grampus: they come in on back-to-back defeats, following one win and two draws before that. That is one win, two draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 5 points. It leaves them winless in four. Their 2027-season record in our dataset (6 scored and 14 conceded in seven matches, 0.86 and 2.0 per game) underlines issues at both ends. That is reflected in a form rating of 50.2 out of 100, and they sit 11th on a goal difference of -6.
Kyoto Sanga: they come in on a two-match winning sequence, following two draws and one defeat before that. That is two wins, two draws and one defeat from the last five, worth 8 points. It leaves them unbeaten in four. Their 2027-season record in our dataset (8 scored and 13 conceded in seven matches, 1.14 and 1.86 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 40.2 out of 100, and they sit 14th on a goal difference of -6.
Side by side
| Statistic | Nagoya Grampus | Kyoto Sanga |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 11th | 14th |
| Goal difference | -6 | -6 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LLDDW | WWDDL |
| Points from last 5 | 5 | 8 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 7 / 8 | 11 / 9 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 0 | 1 |
| Matches in our dataset (2027 season) | 7 | 7 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2027) | 0.86 / 2.0 | 1.14 / 1.86 |
| Points per game (2027) | 0.57 | 0.71 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 50.2 | 40.2 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 49% | 26% |
| Head-to-head wins (last 2) | 1 | 0 |
What stands out
- Head-to-head balance (last 2): Nagoya Grampus one win, Kyoto Sanga none wins, one draw — a historically tight match-up.
- Most recent meeting: Nagoya Grampus 3-0 Kyoto Sanga on 10 May 2026.
- Head-to-head goals: 2.5 per game across those meetings, with both teams scoring in one of the two — broadly an average game for goals.
- Pre-match form ratings: Nagoya Grampus 50.2 versus Kyoto Sanga 40.2, a gap of 10.0, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 3.00, over 2.5 goals at 58% and both teams to score at 57%.
- First goal: Leans Nagoya Grampus' way at 56%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model tilts to Nagoya Grampus at 49%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. Kyoto Sanga's stronger recent metrics back it and the goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Nagoya Grampus's way, especially at Toyota Stadium.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Nagoya Grampus or Kyoto Sanga?
Nagoya Grampus, with an implied win probability of roughly 49%. The full split is 49% Nagoya Grampus, 25% the draw and 26% Kyoto Sanga.
When and where is Nagoya Grampus vs Kyoto Sanga being played?
7 November 2026 at Toyota Stadium, Toyota City, kick-off 05:00 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Nagoya Grampus and Kyoto Sanga?
Nagoya Grampus 3-0 Kyoto Sanga on 10 May 2026.
What is the recent form of Nagoya Grampus and Kyoto Sanga?
Nagoya Grampus have taken 5 points from their last five (LLDDW), Kyoto Sanga 8 from theirs (WWDDL). Most recently Nagoya Grampus took a 1-3 defeat away at Vissel Kobe and Kyoto Sanga a 2-0 win at home to Shimizu S-pulse.
How many goals are expected in Nagoya Grampus vs Kyoto Sanga?
The model's combined scoring line is 3.00 — 1.20 for Nagoya Grampus and 1.80 for Kyoto Sanga. It rates over 2.5 goals at 58%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 57%, so its call is yes.