Shimizu S-pulse vs Tokyo Verdy — form, head-to-head and match prediction
Our model makes Shimizu S-pulse the pick at 44% for Shimizu S-pulse vs Tokyo Verdy. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Shimizu S-pulse face Tokyo Verdy on 7 November 2026 at IAI Stadium Nihondaira, Shizuoka. Shimizu S-pulse are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 44%. This matchday 14 fixture in J1 League is listed as Shimizu S-pulse - Tokyo Verdy. Kick-off is 04:00 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Shimizu S-pulse: they come in on three defeats in a row, following one draw and one defeat before that. That is no wins, one draw and four defeats from the last five, worth 1 points. It leaves them winless in five. Their 2027-season record in our dataset (6 scored and 12 conceded in seven matches, 0.86 and 1.71 per game) underlines issues at both ends. That is reflected in a form rating of 35.3 out of 100, and they sit 13th on a goal difference of -12.
Tokyo Verdy: they come in on a two-match winning sequence, following one draw and two defeats before that. That is two wins, one draw and two defeats from the last five, worth 7 points. It leaves them unbeaten in three. Their 2027-season record in our dataset (7 scored and 12 conceded in eight matches, 0.88 and 1.5 per game) underlines how hard they have found it to score. That is reflected in a form rating of 45.6 out of 100, and they sit 17th on a goal difference of -11.
Side by side
| Statistic | Shimizu S-pulse | Tokyo Verdy |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 13th | 17th |
| Goal difference | -12 | -11 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LLLDL | WWDLL |
| Points from last 5 | 1 | 7 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 3 / 15 | 7 / 10 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 0 | 0 |
| Matches in our dataset (2027 season) | 7 | 8 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2027) | 0.86 / 1.71 | 0.88 / 1.5 |
| Points per game (2027) | 1.14 | 1.12 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 35.3 | 45.6 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 44% | 30% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: Shimizu S-pulse 35.3 versus Tokyo Verdy 45.6, a gap of 10.2, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.00, over 2.5 goals at 49% and both teams to score at 54%.
- First goal: Leans Shimizu S-pulse's way at 49%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model edges towards Shimizu S-pulse at 44%, and 'edges' is doing real work in that sentence. Tokyo Verdy's stronger recent metrics back it and the goals line points to under 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Shimizu S-pulse's way, especially at IAI Stadium Nihondaira.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Shimizu S-pulse or Tokyo Verdy?
Shimizu S-pulse, with an implied win probability of roughly 44%. The full split is 44% Shimizu S-pulse, 26% the draw and 30% Tokyo Verdy.
When and where is Shimizu S-pulse vs Tokyo Verdy being played?
7 November 2026 at IAI Stadium Nihondaira, Shizuoka, kick-off 04:00 UTC.
Have Shimizu S-pulse and Tokyo Verdy met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Shimizu S-pulse and Tokyo Verdy?
Shimizu S-pulse have taken 1 points from their last five (LLLDL), Tokyo Verdy 7 from theirs (WWDLL). Most recently Shimizu S-pulse took a 0-2 defeat away at Kyoto Sanga and Tokyo Verdy a 2-1 win away at V-varen Nagasaki.
How many goals are expected in Shimizu S-pulse vs Tokyo Verdy?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.00 — 0.80 for Shimizu S-pulse and 1.20 for Tokyo Verdy. It rates over 2.5 goals at 49%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 54%, so its call is yes.