Hibernian vs Kilmarnock — form, head-to-head and match prediction
Our model makes Kilmarnock the pick at 48% for Hibernian vs Kilmarnock. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Hibernian face Kilmarnock on 15 September 2026 at Easter Road, Edinburgh. Kilmarnock are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 48%. This matchday 3 fixture in Premiership is listed as Hibernian - Kilmarnock. Kick-off is 18:45 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Hibernian: they come in on back-to-back defeats, following one win, one draw and one defeat before that. That is one win, one draw and three defeats from the last five, worth 4 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (25 scored and 21 conceded in 18 matches, 1.39 and 1.17 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 44.5 out of 100, and they sit 8th on a goal difference of -2.
Kilmarnock: they come in on the back of a draw, following one win and three defeats before that. That is one win, one draw and three defeats from the last five, worth 4 points. It leaves them three games without a win. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (31 scored and 32 conceded in 18 matches, 1.72 and 1.78 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 25.8 out of 100, and they sit 12th on a goal difference of -10.
Side by side
| Statistic | Hibernian | Kilmarnock |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 8th | 12th |
| Goal difference | -2 | -10 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LLWLD | DLLWL |
| Points from last 5 | 4 | 4 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 6 / 9 | 4 / 12 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 1 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 18 | 18 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 1.39 / 1.17 | 1.72 / 1.78 |
| Points per game (2025) | 1.44 | 1.5 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 44.5 | 25.8 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 9% | 48% |
| Head-to-head wins (last 2) | 2 | 0 |
What stands out
- Head-to-head balance (last 2): Hibernian two wins, Kilmarnock none wins, none draws — an edge to Hibernian.
- Most recent meeting: Hibernian 3-0 Kilmarnock on 04 April 2026.
- Head-to-head goals: 3.5 per game across those meetings, with both teams scoring in one of the two — a fixture that has tended to open up.
- Pre-match form ratings: Hibernian 44.5 versus Kilmarnock 25.8, a gap of 18.7, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.20, over 2.5 goals at 46% and both teams to score at 34%.
- First goal: Leans Kilmarnock's way at 61%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model edges towards Kilmarnock at 48%, and 'edges' is doing real work in that sentence. The goals line points to under 2.5 goals.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Hibernian or Kilmarnock?
Kilmarnock, with an implied win probability of roughly 48%. The full split is 9% Hibernian, 43% the draw and 48% Kilmarnock.
When and where is Hibernian vs Kilmarnock being played?
15 September 2026 at Easter Road, Edinburgh, kick-off 18:45 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Hibernian and Kilmarnock?
Hibernian 3-0 Kilmarnock on 04 April 2026.
What is the recent form of Hibernian and Kilmarnock?
Hibernian have taken 4 points from their last five (LLWLD), Kilmarnock 4 from theirs (DLLWL). Most recently Hibernian took a 1-2 defeat away at ST Johnstone and Kilmarnock a 0-0 draw away at Aberdeen.
How many goals are expected in Hibernian vs Kilmarnock?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.20 — 1.00 for Hibernian and 1.20 for Kilmarnock. It rates over 2.5 goals at 46%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 34%, so its call is no.