Motherwell vs Aberdeen match summary and prediction — Premiership
Our model makes Motherwell the pick at 75% for Motherwell vs Aberdeen. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Aberdeen travel to Motherwell on 15 September 2026 at Fir Park, Motherwell. Motherwell are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 75%. This matchday 3 fixture in Premiership is listed as Motherwell - Aberdeen. Kick-off is 18:45 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Motherwell: they come in on the back of a defeat, following one win, one draw and two defeats before that. That is one win, one draw and three defeats from the last five, worth 4 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (31 scored and 22 conceded in 19 matches, 1.63 and 1.16 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 52.4 out of 100, and they sit 5th on a goal difference of +3.
Aberdeen: they come in on the back of a draw, following one win and three defeats before that. That is one win, one draw and three defeats from the last five, worth 4 points. It leaves them three games without a win. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (25 scored and 44 conceded in 24 matches, 1.04 and 1.83 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 37.1 out of 100, and they sit 10th on a goal difference of -5.
Side by side
| Statistic | Motherwell | Aberdeen |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 5th | 10th |
| Goal difference | +3 | -5 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LWDLL | DLLWL |
| Points from last 5 | 4 | 4 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 8 / 11 | 3 / 6 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 2 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 19 | 24 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 1.63 / 1.16 | 1.04 / 1.83 |
| Points per game (2025) | 1.47 | 0.79 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 52.4 | 37.1 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 75% | 4% |
| Head-to-head wins (last 1) | 0 | 1 |
Key match insights
- Pre-match form ratings: Motherwell 52.4 versus Aberdeen 37.1, a gap of 15.3, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 4.20, over 2.5 goals at 74% and both teams to score at 23%.
- First goal: Leans Motherwell's way at 82%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model leans firmly towards Motherwell at 75%, a gap of 54 percentage points to the next outcome. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Motherwell's way, especially at Fir Park.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Motherwell or Aberdeen?
Motherwell, with an implied win probability of roughly 75%. The full split is 75% Motherwell, 21% the draw and 4% Aberdeen.
When and where is Motherwell vs Aberdeen being played?
15 September 2026 at Fir Park, Motherwell, kick-off 18:45 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Motherwell and Aberdeen?
Aberdeen 2-0 Motherwell on 18 February 2026.
What is the recent form of Motherwell and Aberdeen?
Motherwell have taken 4 points from their last five (LWDLL), Aberdeen 4 from theirs (DLLWL). Most recently Motherwell took a 0-1 defeat away at Rangers and Aberdeen a 0-0 draw at home to Kilmarnock.
How many goals are expected in Motherwell vs Aberdeen?
The model's combined scoring line is 4.20 — 2.40 for Motherwell and 1.80 for Aberdeen. It rates over 2.5 goals at 74%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 23%, so its call is no.