Celtic vs Rangers — form, head-to-head and match prediction
Our model makes Celtic the pick at 59% for Celtic vs Rangers. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Celtic host Rangers on 20 September 2026 at Celtic Park, Glasgow. Celtic are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 59%. This matchday 7 fixture in Premiership is listed as Celtic - Rangers. Kick-off is 11:00 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Celtic: they come in on the back of a defeat, following four wins before that. That is four wins, no draws and one defeat from the last five, worth 12 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (59 scored and 43 conceded in 32 matches, 1.84 and 1.34 per game) points to strong attacking output with occasional defensive lapses. That is reflected in a form rating of 77.8 out of 100, and they sit 1st on a goal difference of +11.
Rangers: they come in on a five-match winning sequence. That is five wins, no draws and no defeats from the last five, worth 15 points. It leaves them unbeaten in five. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (60 scored and 55 conceded in 31 matches, 1.94 and 1.77 per game) points to strong attacking output with occasional defensive lapses. That is reflected in a form rating of 65.8 out of 100, and they sit 2nd on a goal difference of +3.
Side by side
| Statistic | Celtic | Rangers |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 1st | 2nd |
| Goal difference | +11 | +3 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LWWWW | WWWWW |
| Points from last 5 | 12 | 15 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 8 / 5 | 8 / 1 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 2 | 4 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 32 | 31 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 1.84 / 1.34 | 1.94 / 1.77 |
| Points per game (2025) | 1.94 | 1.42 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 77.8 | 65.8 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 59% | 8% |
| Head-to-head wins (last 2) | 1 | 1 |
Key match insights
- Head-to-head balance (last 2): Celtic one win, Rangers one win, none draws — a historically tight match-up.
- Most recent meeting: Celtic 3-1 Rangers on 10 May 2026.
- Head-to-head goals: 4.0 per game across those meetings, with both teams scoring in all of them — a fixture that has tended to open up.
- Pre-match form ratings: Celtic 77.8 versus Rangers 65.8, a gap of 12.0, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 1.40, over 2.5 goals at 79% and both teams to score at 76%.
- First goal: Leans Celtic's way at 61%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model leans firmly towards Celtic at 59%, a gap of 26 percentage points to the next outcome. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Celtic's way, especially at Celtic Park.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Celtic or Rangers?
Celtic, with an implied win probability of roughly 59%. The full split is 59% Celtic, 33% the draw and 8% Rangers.
When and where is Celtic vs Rangers being played?
20 September 2026 at Celtic Park, Glasgow, kick-off 11:00 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Celtic and Rangers?
Celtic 3-1 Rangers on 10 May 2026.
What is the recent form of Celtic and Rangers?
Celtic have taken 12 points from their last five (LWWWW), Rangers 15 from theirs (WWWWW). Most recently Celtic took a 0-3 defeat away at Rangers and Rangers a 3-0 win at home to Celtic.
How many goals are expected in Celtic vs Rangers?
The model's combined scoring line is 1.40 — 0.00 for Celtic and 1.40 for Rangers. It rates over 2.5 goals at 79%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 76%, so its call is yes.