Dundee Utd vs Aberdeen: the numbers, the form and our prediction
Our model makes Dundee Utd the pick at 46% for Dundee Utd vs Aberdeen. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Dundee Utd face Aberdeen on 24 October 2026 at CalForth Construction Arena, Dundee. Dundee Utd are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 46%. This matchday 10 fixture in Premiership is listed as Dundee Utd - Aberdeen. Kick-off is 14:00 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Dundee Utd: they come in on the back of a draw, following two wins, one draw and one defeat before that. That is two wins, two draws and one defeat from the last five, worth 8 points. It leaves them unbeaten in four. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (27 scored and 35 conceded in 21 matches, 1.29 and 1.67 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 51.4 out of 100, and they sit 6th on a goal difference of -1.
Aberdeen: they come in on the back of a win, following two wins, one draw and one defeat before that. That is three wins, one draw and one defeat from the last five, worth 10 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (25 scored and 44 conceded in 24 matches, 1.04 and 1.83 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 51.7 out of 100, and they sit 7th on a goal difference of 0.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Dundee Utd | Aberdeen |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 6th | 7th |
| Goal difference | -1 | 0 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | DWWDL | WLWDW |
| Points from last 5 | 8 | 10 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 6 / 5 | 12 / 4 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 2 | 1 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 21 | 24 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 1.29 / 1.67 | 1.04 / 1.83 |
| Points per game (2025) | 1.24 | 0.79 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 51.4 | 51.7 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 46% | 30% |
| Head-to-head wins (last 2) | 0 | 1 |
Key match insights
- Head-to-head balance (last 2): Dundee Utd none wins, Aberdeen one win, one draw — a historically tight match-up.
- Most recent meeting: Aberdeen 2-0 Dundee Utd on 09 May 2026.
- Head-to-head goals: 1.0 per game across those meetings, with both teams scoring in none of the two — a fixture that has historically stayed tight.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 1.60, over 2.5 goals at 59% and both teams to score at 57%.
- First goal: Leans Dundee Utd's way at 53%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model tilts to Dundee Utd at 46%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Dundee Utd's way, especially at CalForth Construction Arena.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Dundee Utd or Aberdeen?
Dundee Utd, with an implied win probability of roughly 46%. The full split is 46% Dundee Utd, 25% the draw and 30% Aberdeen.
When and where is Dundee Utd vs Aberdeen being played?
24 October 2026 at CalForth Construction Arena, Dundee, kick-off 14:00 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Dundee Utd and Aberdeen?
Aberdeen 2-0 Dundee Utd on 09 May 2026.
What is the recent form of Dundee Utd and Aberdeen?
Dundee Utd have taken 8 points from their last five (DWWDL), Aberdeen 10 from theirs (WLWDW). Most recently Dundee Utd took a 1-1 draw away at ST Johnstone and Aberdeen a 3-1 win at home to ST Mirren.
How many goals are expected in Dundee Utd vs Aberdeen?
The model's combined scoring line is 1.60 — 0.60 for Dundee Utd and 1.00 for Aberdeen. It rates over 2.5 goals at 59%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 57%, so its call is yes.