Falkirk vs Kilmarnock match summary and prediction — Premiership
There is barely anything between Falkirk and Kilmarnock on our numbers. Form trajectory, a side-by-side comparison, the head-to-head record and where the model does — and does not — commit.
The fixture at a glance
Kilmarnock travel to Falkirk on 24 October 2026 at Falkirk Stadium, Falkirk. Falkirk are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 38%. This matchday 10 fixture in Premiership is listed as Falkirk - Kilmarnock. Kick-off is 14:00 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Falkirk: they come in on the back of a win, following one win, two draws and one defeat before that. That is two wins, two draws and one defeat from the last five, worth 8 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (32 scored and 36 conceded in 20 matches, 1.6 and 1.8 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 50.9 out of 100, and they sit 9th on a goal difference of -3.
Kilmarnock: they come in on the back of a win, following one win, two draws and one defeat before that. That is two wins, two draws and one defeat from the last five, worth 8 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (31 scored and 32 conceded in 18 matches, 1.72 and 1.78 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 49.2 out of 100, and they sit 11th on a goal difference of -10.
Side by side
| Statistic | Falkirk | Kilmarnock |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 9th | 11th |
| Goal difference | -3 | -10 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WLDWD | WLDWD |
| Points from last 5 | 8 | 8 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 7 / 6 | 7 / 7 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 0 | 1 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 20 | 18 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 1.6 / 1.8 | 1.72 / 1.78 |
| Points per game (2025) | 1.4 | 1.5 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 50.9 | 49.2 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 38% | 34% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: Falkirk 50.9 versus Kilmarnock 49.2, a gap of 1.8, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 1.40, over 2.5 goals at 59% and both teams to score at 57%.
- First goal: Leans Falkirk's way at 49%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model does not commit. Falkirk is the nominal pick at 38%, but the three results sit close to even. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Falkirk's way, especially at Falkirk Stadium.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Falkirk or Kilmarnock?
Falkirk, with an implied win probability of roughly 38%. The full split is 38% Falkirk, 28% the draw and 34% Kilmarnock.
When and where is Falkirk vs Kilmarnock being played?
24 October 2026 at Falkirk Stadium, Falkirk, kick-off 14:00 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Falkirk and Kilmarnock?
Falkirk 5-1 Kilmarnock on 28 February 2026.
What is the recent form of Falkirk and Kilmarnock?
Falkirk have taken 8 points from their last five (WLDWD), Kilmarnock 8 from theirs (WLDWD). Most recently Falkirk took a 2-1 win away at Hibernian and Kilmarnock a 3-2 win at home to Motherwell.
How many goals are expected in Falkirk vs Kilmarnock?
The model's combined scoring line is 1.40 — 0.80 for Falkirk and 0.60 for Kilmarnock. It rates over 2.5 goals at 59%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 57%, so its call is yes.