ST Mirren vs Dundee match summary and prediction — Premiership
Our model makes ST Mirren the pick at 44% for ST Mirren vs Dundee. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
ST Mirren host Dundee on 24 October 2026 at The SMiSA Stadium, Paisley. ST Mirren are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 44%. This matchday 10 fixture in Premiership is listed as ST Mirren - Dundee. Kick-off is 14:00 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
ST Mirren: they come in on five defeats in a row. That is no wins, no draws and five defeats from the last five, worth 0 points. It leaves them winless in five. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (19 scored and 40 conceded in 24 matches, 0.79 and 1.67 per game) underlines issues at both ends. That is reflected in a form rating of 23.0 out of 100, and they sit 8th on a goal difference of -8.
Dundee: they come in on the back of a draw, following two wins, one draw and one defeat before that. That is two wins, two draws and one defeat from the last five, worth 8 points. It leaves them unbeaten in three. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (26 scored and 28 conceded in 18 matches, 1.44 and 1.56 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 52.4 out of 100, and they sit 4th on a goal difference of +3.
Side by side
| Statistic | ST Mirren | Dundee |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 8th | 4th |
| Goal difference | -8 | +3 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LLLLL | DWWLD |
| Points from last 5 | 0 | 8 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 2 / 14 | 8 / 7 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 0 | 0 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 24 | 18 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 0.79 / 1.67 | 1.44 / 1.56 |
| Points per game (2025) | 0.83 | 1.44 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 23.0 | 52.4 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 44% | 28% |
| Head-to-head wins (last 2) | 0 | 1 |
Key match insights
- Head-to-head balance (last 2): ST Mirren none wins, Dundee one win, one draw — a historically tight match-up.
- Most recent meeting: Dundee 1-0 ST Mirren on 02 May 2026.
- Head-to-head goals: 0.5 per game across those meetings, with both teams scoring in none of the two — a fixture that has historically stayed tight.
- Pre-match form ratings: ST Mirren 23.0 versus Dundee 52.4, a gap of 29.4, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.00, over 2.5 goals at 53% and both teams to score at 52%.
- First goal: Leans ST Mirren's way at 54%.
The call
The model edges towards ST Mirren at 44%, and 'edges' is doing real work in that sentence. Dundee's stronger recent metrics back it and the goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts ST Mirren's way, especially at The SMiSA Stadium.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: ST Mirren or Dundee?
ST Mirren, with an implied win probability of roughly 44%. The full split is 44% ST Mirren, 28% the draw and 28% Dundee.
When and where is ST Mirren vs Dundee being played?
24 October 2026 at The SMiSA Stadium, Paisley, kick-off 14:00 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between ST Mirren and Dundee?
Dundee 1-0 ST Mirren on 02 May 2026.
What is the recent form of ST Mirren and Dundee?
ST Mirren have taken 0 points from their last five (LLLLL), Dundee 8 from theirs (DWWLD). Most recently ST Mirren took a 1-3 defeat away at Aberdeen and Dundee a 2-2 draw at home to Rangers.
How many goals are expected in ST Mirren vs Dundee?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.00 — 1.00 for ST Mirren and 1.00 for Dundee. It rates over 2.5 goals at 53%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 52%, so its call is yes.